000
FLUS44 KTSA 162151
HWOTSA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
450 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-170630-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
450 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013

...SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL INCREASES FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

POOR VISIBILITY.
RISK...LIMITED.
AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
ONSET...AFTER MIDNIGHT.

DISCUSSION...
THE THUNDER THREAT HAS SHIFTED SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING...WITH MOST
OF THE ACTIVITY SHIFTING EAST OF THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT.

AREAS OF FOG MAY DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT...WITH SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG
POSSIBLE IN PARTS OF NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION NOT EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
FRIDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DEVELOP AGAIN LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH
THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION. THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP ALONG THE
DRY LINE COULD MOVE INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR
EVENING. ANY STORMS THAT OCCUR WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE
SEVERE. THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT HOWEVER WILL LIKELY REMAIN
WEST OF THE AREA.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE SUNDAY AS A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. MODERATE TO HIGH INSTABILITY...COUPLED WITH STRENGTHENING
WIND FIELDS ALOFT SUGGEST A THREAT FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER
INCLUDING THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES. IT APPEARS AT THIS TIME THAT THE
GREATEST LIKELY-HOOD FOR STORMS WILL OCCUR SUNDAY EVENING AND AGAIN
MONDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY NIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE A
CONCERN AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO TUESDAY BEFORE THE COLD FRONT
FINALLY EXITS THE REGION.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
PERSONS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF MULTIPLE ROUNDS
OF SEVERE WEATHER SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS STILL SEVERAL
DAYS AWAY AND THE TIMING OF SPECIFIC THREATS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
REFINED INTO THE WEEKEND.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

$$