000
FLUS44 KTSA 151815
HWOTSA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
115 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-160615-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
115 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013


...THUNDERSTORMS WITH LIMITED SEVERE POTENTIAL THROUGH TONIGHT...


THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
RISK...LIMITED.
AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
ONSET...ONGOING.

HEAVY RAIN.
RISK...LIMITED.
AREA...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
ONSET...ONGOING.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
RISK...LIMITED.
AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS POSITIONED OVER SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA. THESE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION TONIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEASTWARD. A FEW
OF THESE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT COULD REACH SEVERE
LIMITS WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREATS. MOST OF THE
STRONGER THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS WITH SMALL HAIL AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN. THE THREAT FOR
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS... PRIMARILY ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
LOCAL SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
THURSDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
FRIDAY...NO HAZARDS.
SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY... SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
TUESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING
THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS THE REGION BEFORE THE MAIN UPPER LOW
SHIFTS EAST DURING THE DAY.

THUNDERSTORM CHANGES INCREASE AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND AS A STRONGER
UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO PUSH OUT OF THE ROCKIES
AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MODERATE
INSTABILITY...COUPLED WITH STRENGTHENING WIND FIELDS ALOFT SUGGEST
A THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS BOTH DAYS...SOME
SIGNIFICANT...INCLUDING THE POSSIBILITY OF TORNADOES. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE INTO TUESDAY BEFORE THE COLD FRONT FINALLY EXITS THE
REGION.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
PERSONS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF MULTIPLE ROUNDS
OF SEVERE WEATHER SUNDAY AND MONDAY. SEVERE WEATHER THREATS...
INCLUDING SPECIFIC TIMING...WILL CONTINUE TO BE REFINED IN THE
UPCOMING DAYS.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

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