Hazardous Weather Outlook
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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627
FLUS44 KTSA 191448
HWOTSA

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
948 AM CDT Fri May 19 2017

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-201130-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
948 AM CDT Fri May 19 2017

...SEVERE WEATHER AND FLOOD POTENTIAL CONTINUES THRU TONIGHT...

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.
TORNADO.
RISK...Limited.
AREA...South of I-44.
ONSET...This afternoon.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
RISK...Significant.
AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Western Arkansas.
ONSET...around midday.

AREA AT GREATEST RISK...South of I-44.

FLASH FLOOD.
RISK...Elevated.
AREA...Portions of Eastern Oklahoma this afternoon and evening, Western Arkansas tonight.
ONSET...This afternoon.

HEAVY RAIN.
RISK...Elevated.
AREA...Portions of Eastern Oklahoma this afternoon and evening, Western Arkansas tonight.
ONSET...This afternoon.

DISCUSSION...

There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms this afternoon and
evening across much of Eastern Oklahoma and Western Arkansas, with
the greatest risk south of I-44. Damaging winds and large hail
are the main threats. Isolated tornadoes are possible where storms
interact with lingering boundaries, or with any bowing line
segments late this afternoon and into the evening.

A thunderstorm complex over North Central Texas into South Central
Oklahoma is expected to track into East Central and Southeast
Oklahoma later this morning and into the early afternoon. A
limited severe hail and wind threat will accompany this activity,
but the overall trend should be for this to weaken with time.

More storms are expected to form along the effective boundary laid
out by convection last night and this morning, down closer to the
Red River. This activity will gradually grow upscale into one or
more clusters or lines as it lifts northeast across Eastern
Oklahoma and Western Arkansas this afternoon and tonight.

There were multiple swaths of 2 to 4 inch rains across Eastern
Oklahoma from last night`s convection. Depending on how convection
evolves today and whether this convection tracks over these same
areas, there will be a flash flood threat. There may be some river
flooding that occurs as well, but this will depend on the basins
where the heavy rains fall.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
SATURDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
SUNDAY...No Hazards.
MONDAY and TUESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
WEDNESDAY and THURSDAY...No Hazards.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

Showers and thunderstorms will end from west to east during the
day Saturday. The next storm system will affect the area Monday
into Tuesday bringing a chance of thunderstorms, but only a
limited risk of severe weather.

weather.gov/tulsa Contains additional information.

$$

Lacy



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