Hazardous Weather Outlook
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FLUS44 KTSA 102200
HWOTSA

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
500 PM CDT Thu Aug 10 2017

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-111030-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
500 PM CDT Thu Aug 10 2017

...ACTIVE PATTERN TO PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL LIKELY...
...INCREASED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...This Evening and Tonight.

TORNADO.
    RISK...Very Limited.
    AREA...West of Highway 75 in Northeast and East Central Oklahoma.
    ONSET...Ongoing.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
RISK...Elevated.
AREA...Mainly Northeast and East Central Oklahoma.
ONSET...Ongoing.

FLASH FLOOD.
RISK...Limited.
AREA... Mainly Northeast and East Central Oklahoma.
ONSET...Ongoing.

HEAVY RAIN.
RISK...Elevated.
AREA...Mainly Northeast and East Central Oklahoma.
ONSET...Ongoing.

DISCUSSION...
Strong to severe thunderstorms ongoing late this afternoon across
portions of western and central Oklahoma, as well as southern
Kansas, will continue to move to the east and southeast into
parts of northeast and east central Oklahoma by early evening.
Damaging wind gusts, large hail, and heavy downpours will be
possible. A very limited potential for tornadoes will also exist.
These storms are expected to decrease during the mid to late
evening as they move into slightly more stable air.

Additional thunderstorms are expected to develop through the
evening and into the overnight in the vicinity of a cold front
across parts of Kansas. These thunderstorms will move to the
southeast toward northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas
after midnight. The heavy rain and flash flood potential will be
increased with these thunderstorms. The strongest storms may also
pose a risk of damaging winds, especially if an organized complex
develops.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.
MONDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Daily rounds of thunderstorms are expected from Friday into the
weekend. While the details remain difficult to pinpoint, many
areas will see 3 to 5 inches of rain between Thursday and
Saturday night, with local amounts possibly approaching 10 inches.
At this time it appears the greatest potential for the heaviest
rain will be focused across east central Oklahoma although the
axis of heavy rain will likely shift as this system evolves and
the situation becomes more clear. The rain is likely to be
widespread enough to cause rises on a number of area creeks and
streams, with some local flash flooding possible at locations
receiving the fastest rain rates.

The threat for additional locally heavy rainfall will likely
continue in some areas through mid week as the pattern remains
favorable. Flooding of main stem rivers will ultimately become a
concern should forecast rainfall amounts materialize.

There will also be at least limited severe weather potential with
any organized storm complexes, mainly in the form of damaging
wind gusts.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
Emergency managers should closely follow later forecasts as details
are refined and be prepared for at least some severe weather and
flooding potential from Thursday evening through the weekend.
Flash Flood Watches will likely be issued for parts of the
forecast area, perhaps as early as tonight.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

$$



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