Hazardous Weather Outlook
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FLUS44 KTSA 232202
HWOTSA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
502 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2015

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-241030-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
502 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2015

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
RISK...LIMITED.
AREA...LOCATIONS NEAR THE OKLAHOMA KANSAS BORDER.
        ONSET...AFTER 10 PM.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
RISK...LIMITED.
AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
ONSET...ONGOING...IMPROVING AFTER SUNSET.

DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND NORTH OF A WARM
FRONT...WHICH IS CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR THE OKLAHOMA KANSAS BORDER.
ANY STORMS THAT FORM WILL TRACK EASTWARD...WHILE GRADUALLY
DEVELOPING NORTHWARD.  THE STRONGEST OF STORMS WOULD POSE A RISK
FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION NOT EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
TUESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...VERY HIGH FIRE WEATHER
          POTENTIAL...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
WEDNESDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL...HEAVY
          RAIN POTENTIAL.
THURSDAY...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON
TUESDAY...WHILE INSTABILITY INCREASES ACROSS THE REGION IN ITS ADVANCE.
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH
THUNDERSTORM LIKELY DEVELOPING ALONG THE BOUNDARY...WITH A RISK OF
QUICKLY BECOMING SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE
PRIMARY CONCERN.  ANY STORMS WHICH FORM WILL PERSIST INTO THE MID
EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING.  AN ADDITIONAL CONCERN WILL BE AREAS
WEST OF THE COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHERE FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR AGGRESSIVE FIRE SPREAD.

THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW ON WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL
ALLOW THE UNSTABLE AIRMASS TO EXPAND ACROSS THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.  STORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH CONDITIONS AGAIN FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WITH LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL ESPECIALLY DURING THE INITIAL
HOURS OF STORM DEVELOPMENT.  THE WIDESPREAD STORMS ALONG THE
COLD FRONT WILL ALSO SPREAD HEAVY RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN
OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE STORM SYSTEM ON THURSDAY WITH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES PREVAILING FOR LATE WEEK.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

$$






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