Hazardous Weather Outlook
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FLUS44 KTSA 242228
HWOTSA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
528 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2016

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-251045-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
528 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2016

...MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS WEEK...
...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL TUESDAY...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.
RISK...LIMITED.
AREA...FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...NEAR KANSAS BORDER.
ONSET...AFTER 7 PM.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
RISK...LIMITED.
AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS THIS
AFTERNOON NEAR A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN WESTERN KANSAS. THE MAJORITY
OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN TO THE NORTH AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS.
HOWEVER...THERE IS A SMALL POTENTIAL THAT SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP SOUTH ENOUGH TO MOVE INTO FAR
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...MAINLY NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. A LIMITED SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THAT MAY REACH NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS
EVENING.

AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OUT WEST...GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS IN
THE 20 TO NEAR 40 MPH RANGE WILL REMAIN COMMON ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WINDS SHOULD DECREASE TO AROUND 10 TO 15
MPH ACROSS THE REGION.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION NOT ANTICIPATED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
MONDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
TUESDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
FRIDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL INCREASES THIS WEEK...WITH POTENTIAL
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER TUESDAY.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO BE ACROSS KANSAS ON
MONDAY...WITH THE DRYLINE EXTENDING ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA.
DAYTIME HEATING AND CONVERGENCE NEAR THESE INTERSECTING BOUNDARIES
COULD INITIATE AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO...ALTHOUGH THE FORECAST
CAP STRENGTH MAY PRECLUDE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN ARKANSAS. IF A STORM DEVELOPS...ATMOSPHERIC PARAMETERS
WOULD FAVOR SEVERE STORMS...MAINLY ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN
OKLAHOMA...WITH ALL SEVERE MODES POSSIBLE. THE SEVERE THREAT COULD
EXTEND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON MONDAY IF A STORM DEVELOPS.

THE HIGHEST SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL CONTINUES TO BE TUESDAY EVENING
AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS DRYLINE STORMS DEVELOP TO OUR
WEST AND MOVE EASTWARD. DETAILS CONTINUE TO BE REFINED BUT IT
DOES APPEAR THAT A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK MAY OCCUR
DURING THIS TIME FRAME...WITH ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER
POSSIBLE...INCLUDING STRONG TORNADOES. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS ON WEDNESDAY.

A LIMITED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL EXIST ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA NEAR THE RED RIVER THURSDAY. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN
TO THE ENTIRE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT...FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE
NEXT UPPER WAVE MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR AT
LEAST A LIMITED SEVERE POTENTIAL CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND.
FLOODING COULD BECOME A ISSUE DURING THIS TIME FRAME GIVEN THE
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL THAT ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE
WEEK.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
FIRST RESPONDERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL SHOULD REVIEW
SAFETY PLANS AND MAKE SEVERE WEATHER PREPARATIONS...AS THE
WEATHER PATTERN THIS NEXT WEEK SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OF SEVERE WEATHER...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY WITH POSSIBLE
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

$$


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.