Hazardous Weather Outlook
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FLUS44 KTSA 211910
HWOTSA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
110 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-220715-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
110 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014


THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.
RISK...LIMITED.
AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AS A WARM FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TONIGHT. AN ISOLATED CHANCE OF THUNDER
COULD BE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
THIS AFTERNOON NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS LATE TONIGHT WITH THE APPROACHING
DISTURBANCE. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION NOT EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...VERY HIGH FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
RAIN SHOWERS WITH CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
ONGOING ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SATURDAY
MORNING. RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS TEXAS.
INCREASING MOISTURE OVER THE REGION COULD ALLOW FOR PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH THE GREATER CHANCES
BEING ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. RAIN CHANCES FINALLY BEGIN TO
TAPER OFF SUNDAY NIGHT AS A SECOND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSH ACROSS THE PLAINS. GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT COULD INCREASE FIRE WEATHER DANGERS OVER
PARTS OF THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER LOCATIONS
THAT RECEIVE LESS RAINFALL.

NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPING FOR THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK...BEHIND THE EXITING DISTURBANCES...LOOKS TO PUSH A SERIES
OF WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARIES THROUGH THE REGION. HOWEVER...AT THIS
TIME A LACK OF MOISTURE COULD KEEP THESE FRONTAL PASSAGES DRY.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

$$






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