Hazardous Weather Outlook
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FLUS44 KTSA 231001
HWOTSA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
500 AM CDT SAT APR 23 2016

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-241030-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
500 AM CDT SAT APR 23 2016

...INCREASING SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL NEXT WEEK...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION NOT EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
SUNDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
MONDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
TUESDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
A VERY ACTIVE PATTERN IS FORECAST NEXT WEEK...AND WILL RESULT IN
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER.

AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE SUNDAY
AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD RESULT IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
ALONG THE TRAILING COLD FRONT INTO KANSAS AND PARTS OF NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD AFFECT PARTS OF NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA...POSING A LIMITED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS KANSAS ON MONDAY...WITH
THE DRY LINE SITUATED ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA. DAYTIME HEATING AND
CONVERGENCE NEAR THESE INTERSECTING BOUNDARIES COULD INITIATE AN
ISOLATED STORM OR TWO...ALTHOUGH THE FORECAST CAP STRENGTH MAY PRECLUDE
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS. IF A STORM
DEVELOPS...ATMOSPHERIC PARAMETERS WOULD FAVOR SEVERE STORMS...MAINLY
ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...WITH ALL SEVERE MODES POSSIBLE. THE
SEVERE THREAT COULD EXTEND INTO THE EVENING HOURS ON MONDAY IF A
STORM DEVELOPS.

THE HIGHEST SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL CONTINUES TO BE LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING...AS DRY LINE STORMS DEVELOP TO OUR WEST
AND MOVE EAST. DETAILS WILL CONTINUE TO BE REFINED BUT IT DOES APPEAR
THAT A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK MAY OCCUR DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME...WITH ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE. THE SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT WILL SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST FROM SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA
INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS BY WEDNESDAY.

AT LEAST A LIMITED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL EXIST ACROSS FAR
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA NEAR THE RED RIVER THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURNING TO THE ENTIRE REGION
ON FRIDAY AS THE NEXT UPPER WAVE MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
FIRST RESPONDERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL SHOULD REVIEW
SAFETY PLANS AND BEGIN TO MAKE SEVERE WEATHER PREPARATIONS...AS THE
WEATHER PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE WEATHER.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

$$



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