Hazardous Weather Outlook
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FLUS44 KTSA 162021
HWOTSA

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
321 PM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-171045-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
321 PM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017

...Severe thunderstorms likely this evening across portions of
   northeast Oklahoma...

...Heavy rainfall expected with the potential for flash flooding...

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and Tonight.

TORNADO.
RISK...Limited.
AREA...Northeast Oklahoma.
 ONSET...Late afternoon / early evening.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
RISK...Significant.
AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
ONSET...Late afternoon / early evening.

    Greatest threat area...Northeast Oklahoma, north if I-44.

FLASH FLOOD.
RISK...Elevated.
    AREA...Northeast Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
ONSET...late afternoon / early evening.

HEAVY RAIN.
RISK...Elevated.
AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
ONSET...late afternoon / early evening.

DANGEROUS HEAT.
RISK...Limited.
AREA...Parts of Eastern Oklahoma into West Central Arkansas.
ONSET...Ongoing.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
RISK...Limited.
AREA...Northeast Oklahoma.
ONSET...Ongoing.

DISCUSSION...

Showers with a few lingering thunderstorms will continue to lift
northeast across Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas this
afternoon. This activity is not expected to be severe. Additional
thunderstorm may develop by late afternoon along the Oklahoma and
Kansas boarder near an outflow boundary.  Any storms that develop
would pose a severe threat with large hail, damaging winds and a
limited tornado threat.

The greater threat for severe  weather will be this evening across
northeast Oklahoma as a cold front approaches from the north.  A few
of these storms will likely be severe with damaging winds to 70 mph
and very heavy rain, especially along and north of I-44. To a lesser
extent, a limited tornado threat will also persist.  Storms should
slowly begin to decrease in severity as the thunderstorm line pushes
into east-central Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas overnight.

In addition to the severe threat, periods of heavy rainfall are
expected with the line of storms pushing through northeast Oklahoma
into northwest Arkansas this evening into the overnight hours. Given
the already moist soil conditions, flash flooding will be likely. A
flash flood watch is in effect for a large portion of northeast
Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas through Thursday morning.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Likely.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.
THURSDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
FRIDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...Dangerous Heat
  Potential.
TUESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Thunderstorm chances will remain in the forecast Thursday across
Southeast Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas as the cold front makes
its way through the region. A limited severe potential could be
possible over far Southeast Oklahoma ahead of the front.
Additional thunderstorm chances return Friday as an upper level
low pressure system moves across the Plains. Periods of heavy
rainfall will again be possible Friday with this next system.

A more typical August weather pattern looks to set up over the
weekend and into the start of next week. This will allow for warm
and humid conditions along with small daytime thunderstorm
chances to be possible across Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest
Arkansas this weekend into early next week.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

$$



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