Hazardous Weather Outlook
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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358
FLUS44 KTSA 240956
HWOTSA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
455 AM CDT SUN APR 24 2016

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-251015-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
455 AM CDT SUN APR 24 2016

...INCREASING SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL THIS UPCOMING WEEK...ESPECIALLY FOR
TUESDAY...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.
    RISK...LIMITED.
    AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 44.
    ONSET...THIS EVENING.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
    RISK...LIMITED.
    AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
    ONSET...THIS AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE TODAY
AND TONIGHT SHOULD RESULT IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG
THE TRAILING COLD FRONT  AND DRY LINE INTO KANSAS AND PARTS OF
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD AFFECT PARTS OF
FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA SUNDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY NORTHWEST
OF OUR AREA...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM CAN`T
COMPLETELY BE RULED OUT FOR PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA NEAR THE
KANSAS BORDER.

AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 20 TO NEAR 40
MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION NOT EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
MONDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
TUESDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
FRIDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS KANSAS ON MONDAY...WITH
THE DRY LINE SITUATED ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA. DAYTIME HEATING AND
CONVERGENCE NEAR THESE INTERSECTING BOUNDARIES COULD INITIATE AN
ISOLATED STORM OR TWO...ALTHOUGH THE FORECAST CAP STRENGTH MAY PRECLUDE
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS. IF A STORM
DEVELOPS...ATMOSPHERIC PARAMETERS WOULD FAVOR SEVERE STORMS...MAINLY
ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...WITH ALL SEVERE MODES POSSIBLE. THE
SEVERE THREAT COULD EXTEND INTO THE EVENING HOURS ON MONDAY IF A
STORM DEVELOPS.

THE HIGHEST SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL CONTINUES TO BE TUESDAY EVENING
AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS DRY LINE STORMS DEVELOP TO OUR WEST
AND MOVE EAST. DETAILS WILL CONTINUE TO BE REFINED BUT IT DOES APPEAR
THAT A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK MAY OCCUR DURING THIS
TIME FRAME...WITH ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE...INCLUDING
TORNADOES. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MAINLY
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS ON WEDNESDAY.

AT LEAST A LIMITED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL EXIST ACROSS FAR
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA NEAR THE RED RIVER THURSDAY...WITH
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURNING TO THE ENTIRE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY AS THE NEXT UPPER WAVE MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES.
FLOODING COULD BECOME A ISSUE AROUND THIS TIME GIVEN THE SEVERAL
ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL THAT ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE WEEK.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
FIRST RESPONDERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL SHOULD REVIEW
SAFETY PLANS AND BEGIN TO MAKE SEVERE WEATHER PREPARATIONS...AS THE
WEATHER PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE WEATHER.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

$$



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