Hazardous Weather Outlook
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46
000
FLUS44 KTSA 211800
HWOTSA

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1200 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2018

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-221130-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
1200 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2018

...SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING / ELEVATED
FIRE DANGER MONDAY...

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.
TORNADO.
RISK...Limited.
AREA...East of highway 69, south of highway 412.
ONSET...After 3 PM.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
RISK...Elevated.
AREA...East of highway 69.
ONSET...After 3 PM.

FLASH FLOOD.
RISK...Limited.
AREA...East of highway 69.
ONSET...After 6 PM.

HEAVY RAIN.
RISK...Limited.
AREA...East of highway 69.
ONSET...After 6 PM.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
RISK...Limited.
AREA...Much of northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.
ONSET...Ongoing.

FIRE WEATHER DANGER.
RISK...Limited.
AREA...Much of eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.
ONSET...Ongoing.

DISCUSSION...

There is a slight or elevated risk for severe storms later this
afternoon and evening east of highway 69 and south of highway 412,
covering portions of east central and southeast Oklahoma, as well
as much of northwest and west central Arkansas. Damaging winds
will be the primary threat. However, isolated tornadoes and
marginally severe hail will also be possible with the strongest
storms. There is a marginal or limited risk of severe storms
across portions of northeast and east central Oklahoma.

Storms are expected to form by mid afternoon along a zone of
increasing low level convergence ahead of a cold front/dryline. A
secondary round of scattered storms is expected to develop along
the cold front during the evening. Increasing low level moisture
over eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas will combine with
plenty of wind shear and weak to possibly moderate instability to
bring severe weather potential. Low level shear will be sufficient
to support the potential for a few isolated tornadoes.
Instability will be the main limiting factor to a more widespread
and organized severe weather threat. All storm activity should
move east toward central Arkansas by around midnight tonight.

Strong south winds, with gusts to near 40 mph, will persist for
the remainder of the day. The strong winds and favorable fuel
conditions will raise fire weather concerns, however the overall
fire danger will be limited by higher moisture/humidity in the
air. The dry air behind the cold front is not expected to move
into the region until after dark, limiting the overall fire
weather threat.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Likely.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.
MONDAY...High Wind Potential...High Fire Weather Potential.
TUESDAY thru THURSDAY...No Hazards.
FRIDAY...High Wind Potential.
SATURDAY...No Hazards.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

Strong and gusty west winds on Monday behind the cold front,
combined with drier air that will then be in place, will elevate
fire weather concerns. An elevated fire danger is forecast over
much of eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas. Conditions will be
conducive for the rapid growth and spread of wildfires.

Strong south winds will return toward the end of the week ahead of
the next storm system. The winds will raise fire weather concerns
as well.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

$$

Lacy


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.