Hazardous Weather Outlook
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FLUS44 KTSA 271619
HWOTSA

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1118 AM CDT Thu Apr 27 2017

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-281030-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
1118 AM CDT Thu Apr 27 2017

...WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF
EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT...

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

THUNDERSTORMS WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.
RISK...Elevated.
    AREA...Northeast Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
    ONSET...This Evening.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
RISK...Limited.
AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Western Arkansas.
    ONSET...This afternoon.

DISCUSSION...
Thunderstorms are possible generally after 6 pm across northeast
Oklahoma...with chances increasing into the evening hours with
storms eventually moving into parts of northwest Arkansas. While
a few strong storms will be possible...significant severe weather
is not expected with this system tonight.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Spotter Activation Not Expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
FRIDAY and SATURDAY...Severe Thunderstorm Potential...High
Wind Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.
SUNDAY and MONDAY...No Hazards.
TUESDAY and WEDNESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
A Flash Flood Watch is in effect for portions of northeast
Oklahoma and western Arkansas beginning Friday night. An upper
level storm system will approach the Four Corners region late
Friday, bringing both the potential for severe weather and
heavy rain. At the surface, a warm front will lift north
across central and eastern Oklahoma on Friday afternoon. This
will serve as a focus for late afternoon showers and
thunderstorms. Given the favorable shear and instability that
will be in place south of the warm front Friday afternoon,
scattered severe thunderstorms are expected with the potential
for large hail and damaging winds. Tornadoes are possible as
well, particularly with any discrete storms which form early
in the evolution of the event.

Eventually, storms are forecast to develop into a large complex.
Strong southerly low level flow will transport abundant moisture
over the surface boundary across Oklahoma resulting in storms
forming over and over across the same areas. This setup is
expected to be maintained over portions of eastern Oklahoma and
western Arkansas for a significant time beginning Friday night and
ending by Sunday morning. Widespread storm total rain amounts of
4 to 8 inches appear likely with isolated higher amounts. This
will result in a major flash flooding and river flooding event
through the weekend.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
Continue to follow the latest updates regarding the expected
hazardous weather that will affect much of the area by this
weekend.

weather.gov/tulsa Contains additional information.

$$



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