Hazardous Weather Outlook
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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229
FLUS44 KTSA 271057
HWOTSA

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
457 AM CST Mon Feb 27 2017

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-281100-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
457 AM CST Mon Feb 27 2017

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
RISK...Limited.
AREA...East of a Miami to McAlester line.
ONSET...This Afternoon.

DISCUSSION...
A limited potential for severe thunderstorms will exist this
afternoon across parts of far southeast Oklahoma and overnight
across parts of far eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas. Hail to
the size of quarters and wind gusts up to 60 mph may occur with a
few stronger thunderstorms.

Thunderstorms could develop along a northward moving warm front
this afternoon, and while the bulk of the afternoon thunderstorms
should remain south of the Red River, there is a nonzero chance
that they could affect parts of far southeast Oklahoma.

Additional elevated thunderstorms could develop overnight as a low
level jet increases across far eastern Oklahoma and western
Arkansas.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Local Spotter Activation May Be Needed.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
TUESDAY...Severe Thundertorm Potential...High Wind Potential...
          Very High Fire Danger Potential.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...No Hazards.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Severe thunderstorms continue to appear likely Tuesday afternoon
and into Tuesday night.

Thunderstorms may develop during the afternoon hours across far
eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas. The afternoon thunderstorm
development is the most uncertain of the two rounds of
thunderstorms that are possible Tuesday and Tuesday night. If the
afternoon storms materialize, these will likely be supercellular,
with a large hail, damaging wind, and isolated tornado threat.

Late Tuesday evening and into early Wednesday morning,
thunderstorms are likely to develop across eastern Oklahoma along
a cold front and move into western Arkansas. Damaging winds will
be the primary severe weather threat, but there will also be a low
chance of isolated, short-lived tornadoes with stronger cells
within the expected squall line.

In addition to the severe thunderstorm threats on Tuesday, an
elevated risk of rapid fire spread will exist during the afternoon
hours, especially across parts of northeast Oklahoma. Southerly
winds will gust in the 25 to 35 mph range in conjunction with
near record temperatures and continued very dry fuels.

weather.gov/tulsa Contains additional information.

$$



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