000
FLUS44 KTSA 162201
HWOTSA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
501 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-171015-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
501 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013


THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
RISK...ELEVATED.
AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
ONSET...ONGOING. ADDITIONAL FOR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AFTER
                MIDNIGHT.

FLASH FLOOD.
RISK...ELEVATED.
AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
ONSET...ONGOING.

HEAVY RAIN.
RISK...LIMITED.
AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
ONSET...ONGOING.


DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD
ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS
AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE
WITH HAIL AND WINDS. VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE STRONGER STORMS...WHICH COULD CREATE FLASH FLOODING
CONDITIONS. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING.

THE GREATER SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. ONE OR MORE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES ARE
EXPECTED TO ORGANIZE AND MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST.
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD...ALONG WITH SOME
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL IN THE STRONGER CORES.

GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE IN THE ATMOSPHERE FOR
STORMS TO WORK WITH...HEAVY RAINFALL RATES WILL BE THE RESULT. IF
STORMS END UP TRAINING OVER THE SAME AREAS...SEVERAL INCHES OF
RAINFALL COULD FALL IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. THIS COULD LEAD TO
LOCALIZED FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN LOW LYING AREAS.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF THE REGIONAL SPOTTER NETWORK LIKELY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
MONDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
TUESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
WEDNESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
THURSDAY...NO HAZARDS.
FRIDAY...DANGEROUS HEAT POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY...DANGEROUS HEAT POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
A LARGE COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING IN THE
MORNING. AN OUTFLOW REINFORCED EAST-WEST ORIENTED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY BE LAID OUT OVER OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS ON
MONDAY AFTERNOON. ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL BE VERY UNSTABLE...AND COMBINE THIS WITH INCREASING
NORTHWESTERLY DEEP LAYER SHEAR...THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS
INCREASES. VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
HAZARDS. IF A DISCRETE SUPERCELL CAN DEVELOP...THEN AN ISOLATED
TORNADO IS POSSIBLE AS WELL.

THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION ALOFT...AND THIS WILL PUT AN
END TO THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

$$