Hazardous Weather Outlook
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FLUS44 KTSA 280247
HWOTSA

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
947 PM CDT Thu Apr 27 2017

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-281045-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
947 PM CDT Thu Apr 27 2017

...WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF
EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT...

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

THUNDERSTORMS WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.
RISK...Limited.
AREA...Northeast Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
ONSET...Ongoing.

DISCUSSION...
Scattered showers along with isolated embedded thunderstorms will
continue to push across Northeast Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas
overnight tonight as a mid level disturbance moves through the
Plains. Severe weather is not anticipated tonight.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Spotter Activation Not Expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
FRIDAY and SATURDAY...Severe Thunderstorm Potential...High Wind
  Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.
SUNDAY...No Hazards.
MONDAY...High Wind Potential.
TUESDAY and WEDNESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
WEDNESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
A Flash Flood Watch is in effect for portions of northeast
Oklahoma and western Arkansas beginning Friday night. An upper
level storm system will approach the Four Corners region late
Friday, bringing both the potential for severe weather and
heavy rain. At the surface, a warm front will lift north
across central and eastern Oklahoma on Friday afternoon. This
will serve as a focus for late afternoon showers and
thunderstorms. Given the favorable shear and instability that
will be in place south of the warm front Friday afternoon,
scattered severe thunderstorms are expected with the potential
for large hail and damaging winds. Tornadoes are possible as
well, particularly with any discrete storms which form early
in the evolution of the event.

Eventually, storms are forecast to develop into a large complex.
Strong southerly low level flow will transport abundant moisture
over the surface boundary across Oklahoma resulting in storms
forming over and over across the same areas. This setup is
expected to be maintained over portions of eastern Oklahoma and
western Arkansas for a significant time beginning Friday night and
ending by Sunday morning. Widespread storm total rain amounts of
4 to 8 inches appear likely with isolated higher amounts. This
will result in a major flash flooding and river flooding event
through the weekend.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
Continue to follow the latest updates regarding the expected
hazardous weather that will affect much of the area by this
weekend.

weather.gov/tulsa Contains additional information.

$$



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