000
FLUS44 KTSA 161000
HWOTSA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
500 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-171000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
500 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
RISK...ELEVATED.
AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
ONSET...PRIMARILY LATE EVENING.

FLASH FLOOD.
RISK...ELEVATED.
AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
ONSET...OVERNIGHT.

HEAVY RAIN.
RISK...LIMITED.
AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
ONSET...OVERNIGHT.

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY
ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS WITH A WEAKENING
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE STILL AFFECTING THE AREA. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
LEFT OVER FROM A DECAYING THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WILL ALSO PROVIDE
A LIFTING MECHANISM FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY. THE AIRMASS WILL BE UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL THE CONCERN.

THE BEST CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME LATE THIS EVENING AND
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX ORGANIZES OVER
KANSAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN WITH MANY AREAS ACROSS NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA SEEING 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN OVERNIGHT. THIS COULD LEAD TO
FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF THE REGIONAL SPOTTER NETWORK LIKELY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
MONDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING MONDAY MORNING AS THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX
CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION. THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE MONDAY MORNING. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL THEN BECOME THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.
$$