Hazardous Weather Outlook
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FLUS44 KTSA 162308
HWOTSA

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
607 PM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-171045-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
607 PM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017

...Severe thunderstorms likely this evening across portions of
   northeast Oklahoma...

...Heavy rainfall expected with the potential for flash flooding...

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and Tonight.

TORNADO.
RISK...Limited.
AREA...Northeast Oklahoma.
 ONSET...Ongoing.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
RISK...Significant.
AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
ONSET...Ongoing.

    Greatest threat area...Northeast Oklahoma, north if I-44.

FLASH FLOOD.
RISK...Elevated.
    AREA...Northeast Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
ONSET...early evening.

HEAVY RAIN.
RISK...Elevated.
AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
ONSET...Ongoing.

DISCUSSION...

Multiple strong to severe thunderstorms have developed northwest of
the area late this afternoon. This thunderstorm activity will likely
move into northeast Oklahoma this evening with the main threat of
damaging winds to 70 mph and very heavy rain. To a lesser extent, a
limited tornado threat will also exists, mainly near the Oklahoma,
Kansas border. Storms should slowly begin to decrease in severity as
the thunderstorm line pushes into east-central Oklahoma and
northwest Arkansas overnight.

Periods of heavy rainfall are expected with the line of storms that
will move through northeast Oklahoma into northwest Arkansas this
evening into the overnight hours. Given the already moist soil
conditions, flash flooding will be likely. A flash flood watch is in
effect for a large portion of northeast Oklahoma and northwest
Arkansas through Thursday morning.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Likely.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.
THURSDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
FRIDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...Dangerous Heat
  Potential.
TUESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Thunderstorm chances will remain in the forecast Thursday across
Southeast Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas as the cold front makes
its way through the region. A limited severe potential could be
possible over far Southeast Oklahoma ahead of the front.
Additional thunderstorm chances return Friday as an upper level
low pressure system moves across the Plains. Periods of heavy
rainfall will again be possible Friday with this next system.

A more typical August weather pattern looks to set up over the
weekend and into the start of next week. This will allow for warm
and humid conditions along with small daytime thunderstorm
chances to be possible across Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest
Arkansas this weekend into early next week.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

$$



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