Hazardous Weather Outlook
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FLUS44 KTSA 231945
HWOTSA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
245 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-241015-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
245 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015


...DANGEROUS FLOODING TO DEVELOP TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
TORNADO.
RISK...LIMITED.
AREA...PRIMARILY EASTERN OKLAHOMA.
ONSET...AFTER 3 PM.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
RISK...LIMITED.
AREA...PRIMARILY EASTERN OKLAHOMA.
ONSET...AFTER 3 PM.

FLASH FLOOD.
RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
AREA...ALL OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
ONSET...PRIMARILY AFTER 5 PM.

DISCUSSION...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD INTO EASTERN
OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON AND PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
AN AXIS OF HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS WILL RESULT WITH DANGEROUS
FLOODING LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

SOILS REMAIN SATURATED AND MANY RIVERS ARE AT CAPACITY.  THIS
WILL LEAD TO POTENTIALLY LIFE THREATENING FLOODING FROM LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.  THOSE WITH OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES
PLANNED...ESPECIALLY NEAR RIVERS AND LAKES...SHOULD TAKE
EXTRA PRECAUTION AND QUICKLY HEAD ANY WARNINGS THAT MAY BE
ISSUED.

LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND COMBINE WITH LOW CLOUD
BASES TO SUPPORT A LIMITED RISK OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS
AND POSSIBLY TORNADOES.  WHILE THERE WILL BE A LIMITED RISK
OF SEVERE WEATHER...THE MORE WIDESPREAD IMPACTS WILL BE FROM
THE FLOODING RAINFALL.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
LOCAL SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
SUNDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
DANGEROUS FLOODING WILL BE ONGOING SUNDAY AND WILL LIKELY
PERSIST IN MONDAY MORNING.  THE HEAVY RAIN AXIS WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT EASTWARD DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY WITH THE HEAVY RAINS
SPREADING ACROSS WESTERN ARKANSAS.  CONDITIONS REMAIN SUPPORTIVE
OF RAPID ONSET FLASH FLOODING AND QUICK ACTION SHOULD BE TAKEN
SHOULD FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

THE RAINFALL WILL TAPER OFF DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...HOWEVER A
LARGE COMPLEX OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL
TEXAS AND TRACK INTO FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN
ARKANSAS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.  THIS WILL QUICKLY WORSEN
ANY ONGOING FLOOD PROBLEMS.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK...HOWEVER THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF EXPECTED
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE FURTHER REFINED IN LATER FORECASTS.
ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL NEXT WEEK WILL OBVIOUSLY WORSEN ANY
ONGOING LARGE STEM RIVER FLOODING.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
RESPONSE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY ESPECIALLY
FOR AREAS NEAR LARGER RIVER BASINS.  LIFE THREATENING FLOODING
IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE WITHIN THE HEAVIER RAINFALL AXIS.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

$$






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.