Hazardous Weather Outlook
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FLUS44 KTSA 180216
HWOTSA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
916 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-181000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
915 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
RISK...LIMITED.
AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO WEST-CENTRAL ARKANSAS.
ONSET...ONGOING.

FLASH FLOOD.
RISK...LIMITED.
AREA...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
ONSET...ONGOING.

HEAVY RAIN.
RISK...LIMITED.
AREA...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
ONSET...ONGOING.


DISCUSSION...
A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEAR THE TULSA METRO AREA INTO
WEST-CENTRAL ARKANSAS THIS EVENING. THIS BAND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO
THE SOUTH AND WEST AS THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO WEAKEN.
SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THROUGH MIDNIGHT
WITH LARGE HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS THE CONCERN. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ALSO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WHICH COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
LOCAL SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
THURSDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
FRIDAY...NO HAZARDS.
SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
SUNDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
MONDAY...NO HAZARDS.
TUESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THURSDAY BEFORE THE
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXIT THE REGION. SOME
OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD AGAIN BE STRONG TO POTENTIALLY
SEVERE.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ARE FORECAST TO
PUSH INTO THE PLAINS AND ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS DURING THE WEEKEND. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE THE COLD
FRONT EXITS THE REGION. TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF
HURRICANE ODILE IS EXPECTED TO LIFT INTO THE PLAINS AND MERGE WITH
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...CREATING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.
$$






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