Hazardous Weather Outlook
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FLUS44 KTSA 271024
HWOTSA

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
524 AM CDT Thu Apr 27 2017

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-281030-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
524 AM CDT Thu Apr 27 2017

...WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF
E CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND NW ARKANSAS FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT...

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

THUNDERSTORMS WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.
RISK...Elevated.
    AREA...Northeast Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
    ONSET...Tonight.

POOR VISIBILITY.
    RISK...Limited.
    AREA...Far Northeast Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
    ONSET...Ongoing.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
RISK...Limited.
AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Western Arkansas.
    ONSET...Mid morning through afternoon.


DISCUSSION...
Areas of dense fog are ongoing this morning across far northeast
Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas after yesterday`s heavy rains.
Visibility may drop quickly over short distances, occasionally
falling to below 1/2 mile. Conditions will improve rapidly after
sunrise.

Winds will increase this afternoon ahead of the next low pressure
system. Expect some wind gusts from 15 to 20 miles per hour this
afternoon. Thunderstorms are possible beginning late this
afternoon and evening across northeast Oklahoma, with a greater
chance after dark across northeast Oklahoma into northwest
Arkansas. Widespread severe weather is not expected with this
system tonight.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Spotter Activation Not Expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
FRIDAY...Severe Thunderstorm Potential...High Wind Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.
SATURDAY...Severe Thunderstorm Potential...High Wind Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.
SUNDAY and MONDAY...No Hazards.
TUESDAY and WEDNESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
A Flash Flood is in effect for portions of northeast Oklahoma and
western Arkansas beginning Friday night. An upper level storm
system will approach the Four Corners region late Friday,
bringing both the potential for severe weather and heavy rain. At
the surface, a warm front will lift north across central and
eastern Oklahoma on Friday afternoon. This will serve as a focus
for late afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Given the favorable
shear and instability that will be in place south of the warm
front Friday afternoon, scattered severe thunderstorms are
expected with the potential for large hail and damaging winds.
Tornadoes are possible as well, particularly with any discrete
storms which form early in the evolution of the event.

Eventually, storms are forecast to develop into a large complex.
Strong southerly low level flow will transport abundant moisture
over the surface boundary across Oklahoma resulting in storms
forming over and over across the same areas. This setup is
expected to be maintained over portions of eastern Oklahoma and
western Arkansas for a significant time beginning Friday night and
ending by Sunday morning. Widespread storm total rain amounts of
4 to 8 inches appear likely with isolated higher amounts. This
will result in a major flash flooding and river flooding event
through the weekend.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
Continue to follow the latest updates regarding the expected
hazardous weather that will affect much of the area by this
weekend.

weather.gov/tulsa Contains additional information.

$$

CORFIDI



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