Hazardous Weather Outlook
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FLUS44 KTSA 240013
HWOTSA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
712 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-241030-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
712 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015


...DANGEROUS FLOODING TO DEVELOP TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
...TORNADO WATCH FOR EASTERN OKLAHOMA UNTIL 4 AM...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THROUGH TONIGHT.
TORNADO.
RISK...ELEVATED.
AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA...ESPECIALLY AREAS WEST OF HIGHWAY 69
ONSET...ONGOING.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
RISK...ELEVATED.
AREA...PRIMARILY EASTERN OKLAHOMA.
ONSET...ONGOING.

FLASH FLOOD.
RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
AREA...ALL OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
ONSET...THIS EVENING.


DISCUSSION...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND
SPREAD INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING AND PERSIST OVERNIGHT.
AN AXIS OF HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS WILL RESULT...AND DANGEROUS
FLOODING IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA
WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

SOILS REMAIN SATURATED AND MANY RIVERS ARE AT CAPACITY. THIS WILL
LEAD TO POTENTIALLY LIFE THREATENING FLOODING FROM LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THOSE WITH OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES
PLANNED...ESPECIALLY NEAR RIVERS AND LAKES...SHOULD BE FAMILIAR
WITH THE SURROUNDINGS SO ANY EVACUATIONS CAN TAKE PLACE AS QUICK AS
POSSIBLE SHOULD ANY WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR HAS SUFFICIENTLY INCREASED AND WILL LIKELY
PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH LOW
CLOUD BASES TO SUPPORT A AN ELEVATED RISK OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS
AND TORNADOES.  DESPITE THE INCREASED RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER...THE
MORE WIDESPREAD IMPACTS WILL BE FROM THE FLOODING RAINFALL THAT WILL
OCCUR.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF THE REGIONAL SPOTTER NETWORK LIKELY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HIGH WIND
POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
DANGEROUS FLOODING WILL BE ONGOING SUNDAY AND WILL LIKELY
PERSIST IN MONDAY MORNING.  THE HEAVY RAIN AXIS WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT EASTWARD DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY WITH THE HEAVY RAINS
SPREADING ACROSS WESTERN ARKANSAS.  CONDITIONS REMAIN SUPPORTIVE
OF RAPID ONSET FLASH FLOODING AND QUICK ACTION SHOULD BE TAKEN
SHOULD FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

THE RAINFALL WILL TAPER OFF DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...HOWEVER A
LARGE COMPLEX OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL
TEXAS AND TRACK INTO FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN
ARKANSAS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.  THIS WILL QUICKLY WORSEN
ANY ONGOING FLOOD PROBLEMS.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK...HOWEVER THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF EXPECTED
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE FURTHER REFINED IN LATER FORECASTS.
ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL NEXT WEEK WILL AGGRAVATE ANY
ONGOING LARGE STEM RIVER FLOODING.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
RESPONSE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY...ESPECIALLY
FOR AREAS NEAR LARGER RIVER BASINS. LIFE THREATENING FLOODING IS
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE WITHIN THE HEAVIER RAINFALL AXIS.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

$$








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