000
FLUS44 KTSA 191030
HWOTSA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
530 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-201000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
530 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
AND AGAIN LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
TORNADO.
RISK...LIMITED.
AREA...PRIMARILY NORTHWEST OF INTERSTATE 44.
ONSET...LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
ONSET...ONGOING AND REDEVELOPING LATE AFTERNOON.

AREA AT GREATEST RISK...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

FLASH FLOOD.
RISK...LIMITED.
AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
ONSET...EVENING.

HEAVY RAIN.
RISK...LIMITED.
AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
ONSET...EVENING.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
RISK...LIMITED.
AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
ONSET...MID MORNING.

DISCUSSION...
A NEAR TROPICAL AIRMASS IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
WILL ERUPT INTO SEVERE STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

AN UNUSUALLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.  THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THAT SYSTEM
WILL REMAIN STALLED FROM NEBRASKA... THROUGH KANSAS TO SOUTHWEST
OKLAHOMA. THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA MID
OR LATE AFTERNOON COULD IMPACT OSAGE AND PAWNEE COUNTIES BY LATE
AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND ABUNDANT INSTABILITY SUGGEST THE
INITIAL STORMS WILL BE  SUPER-CELLULAR...AND EVENTUALLY EVOLVING
INTO SEVERE MCS CLUSTERS OF STORMS THIS EVENING. AREAS NORTHWEST
OF INTERSTATE 44 WILL BE AT  GREATEST RISK  FOR TORNADOES DURING
THE EVENING HOURS. THUNDERSTORM WIND GUST TO 80 MPH AND BASEBALL
HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. STORMS WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT TO NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS. HIGH WATER CONTENT OF THE ATMOSPHERE SUGGEST REPEAT OR
TRAINING STORMS WILL POSE A FLOOD THREAT.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF THE REGIONAL SPOTTER NETWORK EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
MONDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
TUESDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDS.
THURSDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
FRIDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED AGAIN MONDAY. CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT TORNADOES...EXTREMELY LARGE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON / EVENING.  HEAVY RAINFALL
ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA  AND FAR NORTHWEST ARTKANSAS
COULD CREATE FLOODING PROBLEMS.

THE GREATEST SEVERE POTENTIAL MONDAY DEPENDS ON EFFECTS FROM THE
STORMS TONIGHT.  STORMS WILL FORM ON LEFTOVER OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
FROM TONIGHTS CONVECTION. STORMS THAT FORM NEAR THOSE BOUNDARIES
MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL HAVE AN ELEVATED TORNADO POTENTIAL...AGAIN
SOME OF THESE COULD BE STRONG OR EVEN VIOLENT.  THE FAVORED ZONE
FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER MONDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE REFINED
IN LATER OUTLOOKS.

AFTER A BRIEF BREAK FROM THE STORMS ON WEDNESDAY...A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST AGAIN FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK
ALONG THE RETREATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...

AN ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER PERIOD IS EXPECTED WITH NUMEROUS
WATCHES AND WARNINGS BOTH TODAY AND MONDAY.

GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER...ANY DAMAGE
RESPONSE SHOULD BE CLOSELY COORDINATED GIVEN CONTINUED
THREAT OF SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL ON MONDAY.
SEVERE POTENTIAL EVEN EXISTS ON TUESDAY AS WELL.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.
$$