Hazardous Weather Outlook
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FLUS44 KTSA 281016
HWOTSA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
516 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-291030-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
516 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

...FLOOD POTENTIAL NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
RISK...LIMITED.
AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
ONSET...THIS MORNING.

FLASH FLOOD.
RISK...LIMITED TO ELEVATED.
AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
ONSET...THIS MORNING.

HEAVY RAIN.
RISK...LIMITED TO ELEVATED.
AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
ONSET...THIS MORNING.

DISCUSSION...
AN MCS OVER SOUTH AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
SWEEP THROUGH EASTERN OKLAHOMA DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND...
THROUGH NORTHWEST ARKANSAS LATE MORNING  AND  EARLY AFTERNOON.
STRONG TO A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH
THAT LINE OF STORMS. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL LIKELY STABILIZE FOR
A TIME AFTER THE FIRST LINE OF STORMS PASSES..THEN NEW STORMS
WILL LIKELY FORM NEAR  RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES  BY LATE AFTERNOON
WITH MORE STORMS OVERNIGHT. ONCE AGAIN...STRONG TO MARGINALLY
SEVERE STORMS CAN BE ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT.

OF PARTICULAR CONCERN WILL BE THE FLOOD POTENTIAL GIVEN SOGGY
SOILS PROMOTING RAPID RUNOFF AND RISK OF REPEAT THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE SAME AREA.  AN INCH OF OF RAIN IN 30 MINUTES..OR TWO
INCHES IN TWO HOURS  WILL BE ENOUGH  TO INITIATE FLOODING FOR
MOST LOCATIONS IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
LOCAL SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
FRIDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
SUNDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
MONDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
TUESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
WEDNESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY  AND  FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. AN UPPER WAVE COUPLED WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
WILL CONTINUE A THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY. THE COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THAT PERIOD ARE LIKELY TO BE SOMEWHAT STRONGER THAN TODAY.

THE CONTINUED RISK OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL FROM STORMS HAS
PROMPTED A FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. OVERALL..FLOODING
WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL AND WIND
SECONDARY THREATS.

CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS...ALTHOUGH CONTINUED INTO NEXT WEEK...
WILL BE SMALL.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

$$





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