Hazardous Weather Outlook
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FLUS44 KTSA 222132
HWOTSA

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
432 PM CDT Tue Aug 22 2017

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-231045-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
432 PM CDT Tue Aug 22 2017

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...This Evening and Tonight.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
RISK...Limited.
AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwestern Arkansas.
ONSET...Ongoing.

HEAVY RAIN and FLASH FLOOD.
RISK...Limited.
AREA...Southeastern Oklahoma and West Central Arkansas.
ONSET...after 10 pm.

DANGEROUS HEAT.
RISK...Limited.
AREA...Southeastern Oklahoma and West Central Arkansas.
ONSET...Ongoing.

DISCUSSION...
Thunderstorms are expected to become more widespread this evening
across eastern Oklahoma and northwestern Arkansas as a cold front
that extends from near Miami to Perry late this afternoon moves
southward through tonight. Another area of thunderstorm development
is expected along an outflow boundary from earlier thunderstorm
activity that extends from near Okemah to near Broken Bow. The
atmosphere over much of the area has become moderately unstable this
afternoon but wind shear remains rather weak. Therefore, strong to
marginally severe storms are possible through this evening but the
individual storms will likely be short-lived. Damaging wind gusts are
possible in the strongest storms, with the most likely area for
severe weather being across southeastern Oklahoma where the air mass
is most unstable.

As the front moves southward tonight, widespread thunderstorms with
heavy rainfall are expected to move into east central and
southeastern Oklahoma, as well as west central Arkansas. Some
isolated flooding problems may occur if there is any repeat
thunderstorm activity that occurs across the same area over a few
hour period.

The temperatures south of the cold front today have warmed into the
low to mid 90s. This heat combined with dewpoint temperatures in the
low to mid 70s has resulted in heat index values from 100 to near
105 degrees across southeastern Oklahoma and west central Arkansas
this afternoon. These conditions will improve this evening.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Local Spotter Activation May Be Needed.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.
WEDNESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
THURSDAY and FRIDAY...No Hazards.
SATURDAY through MONDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
The cold front will continue moving southward Wednesday, with
thunderstorms affecting southeastern Oklahoma and west central
Arkansas in the morning. These storms will gradually end during the
afternoon as the front pushes into northern Texas. Fair weather can
be expected Thursday and Friday behind the front, as high pressure
settles into the region.

A slow-moving upper level disturbance approaching the area from the
northwest will bring thunderstorm chances back to the region over the
weekend. The remnants of a tropical system in the southern Gulf of
Mexico this evening is forecast to move northward into southern Texas
this week. Depending on the track of this system, rain and
thunderstorm chances late this weekend and early next week may be
increased across portions of eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

$$

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