Public Information Statement
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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NOUS44 KTSA 171349
PNSTSA

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
749 AM CST MON NOV 17 2014

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-171600-
BENTON-CARROLL-WASHINGTON AR-MADISON-CRAWFORD-FRANKLIN-SEBASTIAN-
749 AM CST MON NOV 17 2014

...WINTER WEATHER AWARENESS IN ARKANSAS...

GOVERNOR MIKE BEEBE HAS PROCLAIMED NOVEMBER 17TH THROUGH 21ST AS
WINTER WEATHER AWARENESS WEEK IN ARKANSAS.  SPONSORS OF THE
AWARENESS WEEK ARE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...THE ARKANSAS
DEPARTMENT OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT...ENTERGY ARKANSAS...THE
ELECTRIC COOPERATIVES OF ARKANSAS...THE ARKANSAS NATIONAL GUARD...
THE ARKANSAS STATE POLICE...AND THE AMERICAN RED CROSS.

PEOPLE ARE ASKED TO TAKE SOME TIME AND PREPARE FOR THE UPCOMING
WINTER SEASON.

TODAYS TOPIC IS THE OUTLOOK FOR THE UPCOMING WINTER.

LAST WINTER...TEMPERATURES WERE COLDER THAN NORMAL IN NORTHWESTERN
ARKANSAS...GENERALLY FROM 2 TO 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.  PRECIPITATION
WAS ALSO GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THIS REGION OF THE STATE.
ALTHOUGH TOTAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS TENDED TO AVERAGE BELOW THE
LONG-TERM NORMALS...THE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS LAST WINTER WERE FREQUENT.

THE OFFICIAL OUTLOOK ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR THE
UPCOMING WINTER...DEFINED TO BE THE MONTHS OF DECEMBER...JANUARY...
AND FEBRUARY...INDICATES A SLIGHTLY GREATER PROBABILITY FOR BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN NORTHWESTERN ARKANSAS THAN FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.  THE OUTLOOK FOR PRECIPITATION IS CALLING FOR EQUAL
CHANCES OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION
...MEANING THERE IS NOTHING TO TIP THE SCALE AND FAVOR ONE OR THE
OTHER IN THIS PART OF THE COUNTRY FOR THIS WINTER.

THIS OUTLOOK WAS BASED ON THE LIKELIHOOD OF A WEAK EL NINO DEVELOPING
IN THE EASTERN TROPICAL PACIFIC OCEAN AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE
WINTER MONTHS.  EL NINO IS A WARMING OF THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC OCEAN...
WHICH OFTENTIMES RESULTS IN A SUBSEQUENT SHIFT IN ATMOSPHERIC PATTERNS.
THAT PATTERN SHIFT TENDS TO RESULT IN COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND WETTER THAN NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL UNITED
STATES BUT THAT IS NOT ALWAYS THE CASE...ESPECIALLY FOR YEARS IN
WHICH THE EL NINO CONDITIONS ARE WEAK.

THERE ARE OTHER FACTORS THAT ALSO AFFECT WEATHER PATTERNS AND SOME
OF THOSE FACTORS ARE NOT FORESEEABLE BEYOND ONE OR TWO WEEKS IN
ADVANCE.  THUS...SOME OF THESE OTHER FACTORS...SUCH AS THE ARCTIC
OSCILLATION...ARE NOT TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT WHEN PUTTING TOGETHER A
LONGER TERM OUTLOOK.

THE TABLE BELOW SHOWS WINTERTIME NORMALS FOR SOME LOCATIONS IN
NORTHWESTERN ARKANSAS...

CITY             HIGH     LOW    PRECIPITATION   SEASONAL SNOW
BENTONVILLE      48.0     25.3        8.67            9.2
EUREKA SPRINGS   47.9     28.1        8.96           13.8
FAYETTEVILLE     48.5     26.7        8.89            5.4
FORT SMITH       52.3     31.1        8.86            5.2
OZARK            49.3     29.4       10.20            4.4
SILOAM SPRINGS   48.0     25.3        8.67            6.8

SEASONAL OUTLOOKS CANNOT BE SPECIFIC REGARDING ICE AND SNOW STORMS
BUT AS IS USUALLY THE CASE...SEVERAL BOUTS OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION
CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHWESTERN ARKANSAS WITH VARIABILITY IN
THE TEMPERATURE.  PERIODS OF COLD TEMPERATURES WILL BE INTERSPERSED
WITH MORE MILD CONDITIONS.  THE EXPECTED LONG TERM ATMOSPHERIC
PATTERNS MAY RESULT IN THE COLD PERIODS BEING LONGER THAN THE MILD
PERIODS THIS PARTICULAR WINTER.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE IN TULSA AT 918-838-7838 OR VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TULSA

$$





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