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000
FXUS61 KALY 190544
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
144 AM EDT WED JUN 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT. OUR
WEATHER WILL IMPROVE FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES IN WITH DRY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS. GENERALLY FAIR
CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND...IS EXPECTED FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 115 AM...ALL PCPN HAS MOVED OUT OF THE ALY FORECAST AREA AND
HAVE REMOVED ALL MENTION OF SHOWERS FROM THE FORECAST. HAVE ALSO
REDUCED THE CLOUD COVER FOR MOST OF THE REGION SINCE STLT PICS SHOW
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES IN MOST AREAS EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTHEAST ZONES.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR
MOVES INTO THE REGION ON LIGHT NORTH WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WED-THU NT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS
TIME FRAME...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY/CLEAR SKIES. TEMPS WILL BE QUITE
COOL ON WED...DESPITE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HAVE SIDED WITH THE
COOLER MET MOS FOR WED MAXES...SINCE THE NAM TENDS TO HANDLE
SHALLOW COOL AIR MASSES BEST. EXPECT MAX TEMPS WED TO REACH 70-75
IN VALLEYS...EXCEPT FOR SOME UPPER 70S ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY. WED NT/THU AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 40S ACROSS MUCH OF
THE NORTH COUNTRY...WITH EVEN SOME ISOLATED UPPER 30S ACROSS
SHELTERED VALLEYS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND POSSIBLY
SOUTHERN VT. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT MINS TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S TO
MID 50S. ON THU...EXPECT TEMPS TO WARM SLIGHTLY...WITH 75-80 IN
VALLEYS...AND 70-75 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THU NT MINS SHOULD
BE A BIT MILDER THAN WED NT/THU AM...WITH MINS MAINLY IN THE
50S...EXCEPT 40S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FOR FRI/FRI NT...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO
PASS ACROSS THE REGION FRI. MOISTURE APPEARS LIMITED...AND UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT IS NOT TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE. HOWEVER...THERE MIGHT BE
JUST ENOUGH SHALLOW INSTABILITY ACROSS SE AREAS TO ALLOW FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS TO FORM IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S IN VALLEYS...AND MID 70S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. FOR MIN TEMPS...EXPECT MAINLY 50S.

FOR SAT-TUE...MOST GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A WARM AND
INCREASINGLY HUMID PATTERN DEVELOPING DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS EASTERN CONUS. DIURNAL
INSTABILITY...POSSIBLY COMBINED WITH ANY WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES
PASSING NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...AND
DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL BOUNDARIES COULD TRIGGER SCATTERED...MAINLY
DIURNAL CONVECTION FOR SUNDAY-TUESDAY. THE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
MAY BE A LITTLE LESS ON SAT...WHEN ONLY SLIGHT CHC POPS ARE
INDICATED FOR ISOLATED AREAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION.

TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS...WITH DAYTIME MAXES
MAINLY IN THE LOWER 80S IN SAT...THEN MID/UPPER 80S FOR
SUN-TUE...WITH EVEN WARMER MAXES POSSIBLE. OVERNIGHT MINS SHOULD
FALL INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR SAT AM...THEN MAINLY 60S IN
VALLEYS...WITH MID/UPPER 50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR SUN AM-TUE
AM.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CHALLENGING FORECAST WITH REGARDS TO POSSIBLE FOG FORMATION AT
KGFL/KPSF. IFR FOG ALREADY OCCURRED AT KGFL EARLIER THIS
EVENING...HOWEVER A NORTHERLY BREEZE DEVELOPED AND HAS PERSISTED
RESULTING IN VFR CONDITIONS. IT APPEARS AS THROUGH THE GRADIENT WILL
BE PRONOUNCED ENOUGH FOR THE NORTHERLY BREEZE TO CONTINUE.
HOWEVER..IF WINDS CAN GO CALM EVEN FOR A SHORT TIME OCCASIONAL FOG
AND IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WOULD LIKELY OCCUR. SO WILL MENTION TEMPO
FOR POSSIBLE FOG BETWEEN 07Z-10Z. WINDS REMAIN CALM AT KPSF AND
CLOUDS HAVE SCOURED OUT...SO THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FOG FORMATION
THERE BEFORE THE NORTHERLY BREEZE COMMENCES. WILL ALSO MENTION A
TEMPO TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS BETWEEN 06Z-10Z. KALB/KPOU EXPECTED TO
REMAIN VFR.

ALL SITES SHOULD BE VFR BY AROUND 10Z...WITH A DRY AIR MASS MOVING
IN. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. SOME
RADIATION FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AT KGFL/KPSF ONCE DECOUPLING
OCCURS.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY AROUND 5 KT OR LESS...INCREASING TO 5 TO 10
KT SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER
DARK TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT-FRI...MAINLY VFR. NO SIG WX. POSSIBLE LATE NIGHT FOG AT
KGFL/KPSF.
SAT...MAINLY VFR. SLGT CHC -TSRA/-SHRA.
SUN...MAINLY VFR. CHC TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE RECENT WET
WEATHER.

A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT. OUR
WEATHER WILL IMPROVE FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES IN WITH DRY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOWS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID JUNE ACROSS THE HYDRO SERVICE
AREA.

SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS DUTCHESS...ULSTER AND
LITCHFIELD COUNTIES. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END
THIS EVENING. EARLY FLOOD ADVISORIES ALL HAVE BEEN CANCELLED.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN LATE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...ALLOWING RIVERS TO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY LOWER FROM THE
VERY WET WEATHER THE PAST FEW WEEKS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/KL
NEAR TERM...GJM/IAA/KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM