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000
FXUS61 KBGM 241856
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
256 PM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013

.SYNOPSIS...

A CHILLY...NORTHERLY FLOW OF AIR WILL BE OVER OUR AREA FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. THIS WILL GIVE COLD NIGHTS AND BREEZY DAYS. ALSO...A LOW
MOVING THOUGH NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY
OVER THE EASTERN AREAS...INTO SATURDAY.


&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPR LOW CONTS TO PULL SLOWLY EAST. BACK
EDGE OF THE PCPN IS MIXED WITH SLEET AND SNOW AT TIMES...MAKING
FOR AN ALL TIME RECORD FOR LATEST SNOW RECORDED AT BGM. SHRT TERM
MODELS SHOW CONTD EWRD PROGRESS THRU THE NGT BRING AND END TO THE
PCPN FOR ALL BUT THE FAR EAST. PRBLM ARISES AS ENUF DRY AIR GETS
IN THAT SOME CLRG SEEMS LIKELY...ESP OVER THE WRN ZONES...BRINGING
THE PSBLTY OF FROST. WRKG AGAINST THE FROST WILL BE THE
WIND...WHICH IS FCSTD TO REMAIN AT OR ABV 10 KTS AT THE SFC THRU
THE NGT. HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH CAUTION AND POST AN ADVISORY FOR
STEUBEN CNTY...WHERE GRIDDED DATA SUGGEST SOME OF THE DEEPER VLYS
COULD GO LGT AND TEMPS APRCH 32F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

MODELS SLOWLY COMING INTO AGREEMENT WITH THE SLOW MVMT OF THE UPR
LOW...IN FACT BACKING IT A BIT BRINGING PCPN BACK TO THE WEST ON
SAT. NAM IS STILL THE MOST OPTIMISTIC WITH THE GFS NOW SIDING WITH
THE ECMWF WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW. IN ANY CASE...BIT OF A DFCLT
FCST WITH A SHARP BACK EDGE TO THE CLDS WHICH COULD RESULT IN A
LRG DFRNC FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FCST AREA...FROM SUN TO
COLD RAIN. OTR CNCRN IS THE CONTD THREAT OF FROST AND WHICH AREA
MAY BE AFFECTED. AS WITH TNGT...PSN OF THE LOW WILL HELP KEEP
WINDS UP IN MOST CLRD AREAS LIMITING THE CHANCE FOR FROST. XCPTN
MAY BE SUN NGT WHEN THE GRAD FINALLY RELAXS AS THE UPR LOW KICKS
EAST. SO...BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD FROST MAY ACTUALLY BE
MEMORIAL DAY.

MODEL GUID WAS IN RSNBL AGREE EMT THRU THE PD LDG A HIER THAN NRML
CONFIDENCE IN THE TEMPS FCST. HWVR...STILL REMAIN TRICKY WITH A 10
TO 15 DEGREE HI TEMP DFRNC EASILY PSBL ACROSS THE AREA BOTH SAT
AND SUN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FAIRLY WELL ADVERTISED WARM UP EXPECTED THIS COMING WEEK AS BROAD
UPPER RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN US. BEFORE THIS
OCCURS HOWEVER...FCST MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
REMAINING STALLED SOUTHWEST OF THE FCST AREA WITH DEVELOPING
SHWRS/POSSIBLE THUNDER TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS A SERIES OF
WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES RIDE ALONG THE DEVELOPING EAST COAST
RIDGE AXIS BUILDING FROM OUR SOUTH. AS A RESULT...HAVE MAINTAINED CHC
THUNDER MENTION ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE PERIOD BEFORE
ADVERTISING DRYING CONDITIONS BY LATE WEEK. INITIAL LOOK AT
DEVELOPING SYNOPTIC PATTERN SUGGESTS CONDITIONS MAY BECOME
FAVORABLE FOR A NORTHWEST FLOW SEVERE CONVECTION SETUP WITH OUR
REGION RESIDING ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF DEVELOPING MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURE ANOMALY TO OUR SOUTHWEST. TOO EARLY FROM THIS VANTAGE
POINT TO GET TOO EXCITED BUT TRENDS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED AS
THE TIMING NEARS. WITH FCST 850-HPA TEMPS EXPECTED TO WARM WELL
INTO THE UPPER TEENS...FCST HIGHS BY THU AND FRI WILL LIKELY WARM
WELL INTO THE 80S ONCE THE FRONT FINALLY PASSES.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EXTENSIVE LOW STRATUS PREVAILING ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
ON THE BACKSIDE OF A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WHICH CONTINUES TO MIGRATE
THROUGH THE AREA. IN GENERAL...LOW-END MVFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST
AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON HRS BEFORE
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR OCCURS AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING. SOME POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR CLEARING ACROSS THE WESTERN TERMINALS OF ELM AND ITH AS
DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT...AND HAVE SOME CLEARING
AT ELM NEAR 06Z. FOR ANY CLEARING THAT DOES WORK INTO THE AREA
OVERNIGHT...FCST MODELS SHOW INCREASING CLOUD COVER ONCE AGAIN ON
SATURDAY AS COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT COMBINED WITH MOIST
LOW-LEVEL CONDITIONS. DEVELOPING CIGS SAT MORNING SHOULD REMAIN IN
THE VFR CATEGORY.

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL WEAKEN SOME TONIGHT
BEFORE STRENGTHENING ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY MORNING. FOR BOTH THIS
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN SATURDAY MORNING...NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15
KTS WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25 KTS ARE LIKELY AT ALL SITES.

OUTLOOK...

SUN-WED...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 7 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR NYZ022.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...CMG
AVIATION...CMG