463
FXUS62 KJAX 141752
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
152 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1037 AM EDT Tue May 14 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

A broken line of showers and storms went through SE GA and NE
FL this morning, with residual convection along SR16 this late
morning. This convection will continue to push eastward. Some of
the residual convection may produce winds to 40 mph, before
pushing offshore. A second batch of convection extends from Marion
County into the northeast Gulf of Mexico. The line of showers and
storms over the NE GOM will advect into the Nature Coast and push
inland with strongest storms for JAX AOR this afternoon across
north central FL will bulk of stronger to severe storms moving
into the I-4 corridor this afternoon. We will be closely
monitoring the storms that track across north central FL for best
moisture convergence will reside over Marion, Alachua, Putnam and
Flagler Counties this afternoon. Otherwise convection with this
particular round will be limited across the rest of northeast
Florida and SE GA.

Another disturbance will bring in another round of showers and
storms across the region overnight. Plenty of elevated instability
will be in place, as the nearly stalled front northwest of the
area also starts to make some progress southeastward. Needless to
say, a strong to severe threat will be present overnight tonight,
as convection moves towards the area likely in the form of a
squall line. In addition, heavy rain and localized flooding has
the highest potential during the pre-dawn hours into Wednesday
morning, primarily south of I-10. Stay tuned for more developments
on that throughout the day.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 303 AM EDT Tue May 14 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

A rather complex and tricky forecast continues for most of today
and into tonight, as several shortwave impulses ride along a
nearly stalled boundary across the area. The first round will be
during the morning hours today, as showers and storms currently
over the western FL panhandle move their way across the region.
With the morning timing of the precip, instability will be rather
limited. However, still expecting enough buoyancy in place aloft
for embedded thunderstorms within the approaching line of showers
and trailing stratiform precip. Given the dynamical support with
the shortwave and modest lapse rates aloft, there will be a chance
for strong to severe storms as well, with gusty winds and hail
being the main hazards. The best chance for this looks to be along
and south of I-10 where the most instability will be in place. In
fact, timing may also help an uptick of later morning surface
heating in areas furthest south and east, and therefore an uptick
in surface based CAPE.

The first batch clears the area around late morning, with the
amount of potential convective coverage uncertain during the
afternoon/evening due to the morning showers and storms. It will
take some time for the atmosphere to "reset" behind the morning
convection, though still expecting enough daytime heating for some
showers and thunderstorms to pop up by the evening hours. Temps
climb into the 80s to low 90s south and dew points will be near
and over 70 area wide, and with the boundary lingering with modest
dynamics aloft, there will be potential for strong to severe cells
once again. Similar to this morning, gusty winds and hail will be
the main threats, though an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out.

Convection should clear out approaching midnight tonight before,
you guessed it - another wave of energy aloft moves another round
of showers and storms across the region overnight. Plenty of
elevated instability will remain overnight, as the nearly stalled
front northwest of the area also starts to make some progress
southeastward. Needless to say, a strong to severe threat will
persist through overnight tonight, as convection moves towards the
area likely in the form of a squall line. Stay tuned for more
developments on that throughout today. Lows tonight will be mild
once again, similar to those of this morning (upper 60s and low
70s).

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday through Thursday night)
Issued at 303 AM EDT Tue May 14 2024

Wednesday...Ahead of approaching frontal boundary still expect
ongoing morning numerous to widespread showers and storms across
NE FL with heavy rainfall the main threat, although some isolated
strong to severe storms with damaging winds still possible. Models
still on track with pushing this boundary slowly southward through
NE FL through the afternoon with skies becoming Mostly Sunny
across SE GA as rainfall ends there during the morning hours with
rainfall ending across NE FL by the late afternoon/early evening
hours. Localized flooding will be the main impact across inland NE
FL through the day as 3 day storm total rainfall amounts in some
locations likely approach 4-6 inches, especially across
Hamilton/Suwannee/Columbia/Gilchrist counties and a flood watch
may be required at some point during this event. Breezy West-
Southwest flow at 15-20G30 mph expected as diurnal heating mixes
down leftover winds behind the trailing frontal passage. Likely
sunshine breaking out by the afternoon hours should push Max temps
into the mid/upper 80s for all areas.

Wednesday Night...Drier airmass overspreads the local area with
dry conditions after sunset and skies becoming mostly clear and
temps falling into the 60s area-wide behind the frontal passage.

Thursday...Lingering dry airmass in place between weather systems
will continue mainly dry conditions under mostly sunny skies with
above normal temps reaching into the upper 80s/lower 90s over
inland areas with West-Northwest winds at 10-15 mph and East Coast
sea breeze remains pinned closer to the Atlantic Coast.

Thursday Night...High clouds slowly increase ahead of next weather
system with light SW winds at the surface. Low temps in the 60s
inland and lower 70s along the Atlantic Coast. Dry conditions will
continue.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 303 AM EDT Tue May 14 2024

Friday...Long range models still differ on timing of next frontal
boundary with the latest GFS run keeping the local area dry and
hot, while the ECMWF remains faster with pushing scattered
afternoon/evening storms into the region. So for now the model
blends have kept PoPs in the 30-50% range. Southwest steering flow
will push Max temps above normal and into the lower 90s inland and
upper 80s along the Atlantic Coast along with Heat Indices pushing
close to 100F.

Saturday...Next frontal boundary pushes into the region with a
return to heavy rainfall and isolated strong to severe storm
potential area-wide and rainfall chances already in the 60-80%
range. Above normal temps will continue ahead of the frontal
boundary with upper 80s SE GA and still into the lower 90s for NE
FL with Heat Indices still close to 100F across NE FL.

Sunday/Monday...Lots of long range model uncertainty as some
models push drier air into the region, while some stall the
frontal boundary in the vicinity so for now the model blends are
just placing normal diurnal scattered convection due to local sea
breeze activity as above normal temps continue.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 138 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024

We will see a respite from rainfall through 06z with VFR
conditions and south-southwest winds of 8 to 12 knots with
some higher afternoon gusts to 15-18 knots. Two more rounds of
convection are anticipated for the area terminals. The first round
will commence between 06-08z with a line of convection moving
through the region until 12z. Any storms can produce strong winds
of 35-45 knots and brief IFR cigs and vsby. Shortly after
sunrise, between 12-14z, a potential second round of showers and
storms are forecast to move through the region moving along a slow
moving cold front with some of the stronger storms containing
gusty winds and heavy rain which can cause IFR cigs and vsbys for
area terminals. During the nocturnal hours winds will be out of
the west-southwest at 6 to 9 knots, and then increasing ahead of
the front after sunrise at 10 to 15 knots with some higher gusts.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 806 AM EDT Tue May 14 2024

First line of convection extends from JAX thru GNV across NE FL
and another cluster is west of KSSI this morning. This line and
cluster will move eastward and push offshore by 14z. Some wind
gusts of 30 to 35 mph with some stronger storms is possible with
cigs and vsby briefly lowering to IFR with downpours of rain.
from 14z to 20z we should see a brief respite of convection.
Between 20z and 22z, we may a second chance of showers and storms
recommence with TEMPOS of thunderstorms through 02z. Again brief
lowering of vsbys and cigs associated with heavy downpours during
this period. Models show another respite with this wave of showers
and storms from 02z through 06z, with perhaps a third round of
convection commencing during the overnight hours.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 303 AM EDT Tue May 14 2024

Elevated south-southeasterly winds across the local waters will
begin to subside through today, with Small Craft ADvisory
conditions lowering through this morning. Rain and embedded
storms will pass over the waters this morning, then again this
afternoon/evening and through the overnight hours while a warm
front slowly lifts northeastward into the waters by daybreak. A
wave of strong to severe storms will develop and move eastward
into the waters during the late morning hours today, and be
capable of considerable thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and
waterspouts. Winds will trend lighter and offshore behind the warm
front Tuesday morning. This will be followed by a slow moving
cold front that will pass into the waters on Wednesday. Conditions
begin to improve Thursday as an area of weak high pressure
consolidates to the east.

Rip Currents: Rip current risk remains moderate through tomorrow
with the enhanced flow and stalled boundary over the area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  82  68  86  65 / 100  50  10   0
SSI  84  72  86  69 /  70  60  40   0
JAX  87  71  87  67 /  70  80  50   0
SGJ  88  72  86  69 /  70  80  70   0
GNV  86  71  85  67 /  80  80  70   0
OCF  89  72  84  67 /  80  70  80   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$