480
FXUS64 KLUB 050707
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
207 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 207 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

Quieter conditions were underway early this morning following last
night`s shortwave trough and storms. Water vapor imagery showed mid-
level drying overspreading the region which is forecast to deepen
through the day in response to height rises in SW flow. Down low,
drying will be harder to come by as moist upslope flow within
cool surface ridging keeps stratus locked in through much of the
morning. This story changes this afternoon as the ridge pulls away
allowing winds to veer S-SE which when combined with improved
heating/mixing should erode our 1500-2000 foot thick layer of
clouds. NBM`s high temps were nudged lower over all but the far
western zones where these low clouds will be fist to depart.
Height falls tonight preceding a vigorous upper trough will spur
breezy southerly flow and deeper moisture advection. Upshot of
this is another round of low clouds that will keep lows rather
mild.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 207 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

An upper level trough moving out of the Rockies into the northern
Plains on Monday will become increasingly negatively tilted. Copious
amounts of low level moisture will be drawn into the region in the
pre-dawn hours lasting through much of the morning off the caprock.
A dryline will quickly mix eastward after sunrise with extremely
deep surface cyclogenesis over the Dakotas. This dryline will easily
mix off the Caprock by late morning and likely east of the Rolling
Plains by mid-afternoon. This will shove convective chances east
of the region and leave the entire area in breezy southwest to
west winds and dry conditions. The height gradient aloft will
increase as a short wave trough ejects out of the central Rockies.
Winds aloft will also be on the increase but the main jet streaks
will be from Colorado into Nebraska and the Dakotas. Therefore,
winds aloft locally will not be incredibly impressive ultimately
limiting the extent of surface winds. However, winds will be high
enough for at least elevated fire weather conditions. The
downslope component to the wind will be able to boost temperatures
well into the 80s area wide. Warmer than seasonal average
temperatures will continue into Tuesday and Wednesday as cyclonic
flow aloft encompasses the central CONUS. This will continue to
promote surface cyclogenesis in lee of the Rockies keeping surface
conditions breezy and dry for West Texas. A break in the pattern
will occur around late Wednesday into Thursday as a cold front
moves through the area. Temperatures will be cooler to end the
week but that may be the only high confidence area of the
forecast for this time period. Models begin to diverge in their
solutions for the upper level pattern late next week leading to a
low confidence precipitation forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1242 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

Mixed layers of stratus with IFR at LBB and MVFR and VFR elsewhere
should soon consolidate to IFR and remain this way for much of
the morning. Confidence is high in stratus rising to MVFR around
midday and then VFR through the afternoon with light winds.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...93