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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA
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FXUS66 KMTR 182105
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
205 PM PDT SAT MAY 18 2013

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 2:00 PM PDT SATURDAY...UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE BEGAN TO BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY...RESULTING IN A
WARMING TREND OVER THE AREA. TEMPERATURES AS OF 1:00 PM TODAY WERE
BETWEEN 2 AND 6 DEGREES WARMER COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO...WITH
READINGS INTO THE 60S ALONG THE COAST...TO THE UPPER 70S INLAND.
MODERATE WESTERLY WINDS WERE ALSO PRESENT ACROSS THE AREA AS
ONSHORE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS STRENGTHENED...ALLOWING FOR
WESTERLY WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH.

SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS ON SUNDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS FIRMLY IN PLACE. A FEW
AREAS OF PATCHY LOW CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP OFF THE SAN MATEO COASTLINE AS
WELL AS NEAR THE MONTEREY BAY...AS INDICATED BY BOTH THE NAM AND
LOCAL WRF.

THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH MONDAY
FORECAST TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK. 850 MB TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST TO RISE BETWEEN 6 AND 8 DEGREES C BY MONDAY COMPARED
TO THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES
REACHING THE MID 80S TO MID 90S INLAND...BETWEEN 10 AND 15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE END OF MAY.

IN ADDITION TO WARMING TEMPERATURES...MODERATE OFFSHORE WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTH BAY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THESE
CONDITIONS IN COMBINATION WITH VERY LOW RH VALUES WILL RESULT IN
AN ENHANCED FIRE DANGER LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. IN FACT...THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER MENTIONS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA IN THEIR
LATEST DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK.

BY TUESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE TOWARD
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COASTLINE...BRINGING A MUCH COOLER...BUT
STILL DRY AIRMASS. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL FALL INTO THE MID
70S TO LOW 80S...AND FURTHER STILL BY WEDNESDAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT IN THE MID 70S. THIS UPPER LOW WILL
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY INTO THE WEEKEND...BEFORE SLOWLY DROPPING
FURTHER SOUTH TOWARD THE CA/OR BORDER ON SATURDAY. THE LATEST MID
RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP ALL CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION NORTH
OF THE REGION...BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE MOVEMENT OF
THIS STORM CLOSELY THROUGH THE WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:40 AM PDT SATURDAY...SIMILAR SET UP AS
YESTERDAY...DRY AIR HAS FILTERED INTO THE SF BAY AREA CLEARING LOW
CIGS EXCEPT ALONG THE SAN MATEO COAST. ONSHORE GRADIENT TO NEAR 4
MB WILL MAKE FOR SOMEWHAT GUSTY WINDS AT THE TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS TO RETURN SOMEWHAT LATE TONIGHT.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR TODAY. GUSTY WEST WINDS TO NEAR 30 KT THIS
AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS TO RETURN AFTER MIDNIGHT.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR TODAY. WEST WINDS INTO THE
TEENS. MVFR CIGS RETURN THIS EVENING.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
             SCA...MRY BAY
             SCA...SF BAY FROM 3 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RILEY
AVIATION/MARINE: AC

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