Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 121700
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1100 AM CST Tue Dec 12 2017

.DISCUSSION...

The discussion for the 18Z TAF forecast can be found below.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
No weather impacts expected to aircraft ops thru the period.
Nwrly sfc winds around 10 kts will subside to light and variable
this evening.

Lacy

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 947 AM CST Tue Dec 12 2017/

DISCUSSION...

A highly amplified positive PNA pattern continues over the CONUS
today. Our area remains in the N to NW flow on the back side of
the deep eastern CONUS longwave trough. Another piece of shortwave
energy was diving southeast over the lower Mississippi Valley this
morning, and forced a cold front thru the region last night.
Northwest winds will gradually back to the west and lessen as the
day progresses, as surface ridging builds into the region. Fire
weather issues should be limited today by the lighter winds,
although fire danger still remains very high due to the very dry
conditions and cured vegetation. Current forecast grids are in
reasonable shape, and thus no update to the forecast is needed at
this time.

Lacy

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 534 AM CST Tue Dec 12 2017/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Northwesterly winds are expected to become more westerly this
afternoon...and then shift out of the south to southwest
tonight as surface high pressure moves through the region. VFR
conditions and mostly clear skies should persist through the TAF
period.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 309 AM CST Tue Dec 12 2017/

DISCUSSION...
The initial cold front that passed through the region yesterday
has worked well south into TX...with breezy north winds remaining
across eastern OK/northwest AR. A surface ridge axis will shift
east across the area today...so expect winds to drop during the
afternoon. Temperatures will be closer to seasonal averages...with
highs generally in the mid 40s/lower 50s.

The cool weather will be short-lived as winds quickly become
south/southwest on Wednesday ahead of yet another cold front. The
warmer temps...along with breezy afternoon winds and RH values
dipping to around 25-35 percent will result in poor fire weather
conditions areawide.

The aforementioned cold front will push through the area on
Wednesday...with another reinforcing cool shot expected Thursday
night into Friday. This will again drop temperatures back closer
to seasonal norms to end the week.

A quick pattern change is forecast going into the weekend...with
southwesterly upper flow developing ahead of a deepening upper
trof across the Great Basin. We`ll see yet another uptick in poor
fire weather conditions for Saturday...as temps bounce back into
the 60s...stronger south winds develop and afternoon RH readings
remain low. The best moisture return should remain east of the
area as the upper system ejects into the Plains...although longer
range models suggest that some low PoPs may eventually be
necessary for parts of far southeast OK/western AR. The ECMWF is
also much stronger with the upper system...bringing a closed low
across OK by Sunday (along with some light precip beneath the
closed system). Plan on keeping the forecast dry until more
consistent signals are noted in the extended guidance.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   51  35  64  32 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   52  30  64  35 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   52  33  66  34 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   50  27  65  29 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   45  28  60  29 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   44  32  59  33 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   49  31  64  33 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   45  31  62  30 /   0   0   0   0
F10   51  33  66  33 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   53  32  67  37 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....30



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