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000
FNUS73 KAPX 251031
FWSAPX

Spot Forecast for Skocelas Rx...USFS
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
631 AM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0700 EDT on April 25.
If conditions become unrepresentative... contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at (989)732-9306, if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...Current cold temps in the low to mid 20s should begin to warm
relatively quickly after sunrise with light southeast winds around 5
mph in place. Light winds will allow for lake breeze formation
today. More specifically, the lake breeze looks to push inland from
Lake Michigan and cross the burn site between 12pm and 2pm today --
switching winds from southeast to west-northwest behind the boundary
through the remainder of the day. Wind speeds would still be light
between 5-10 mph. While critical RHs (20-25 percent) are expected
across the eastern half of Manistee county, the combination of burn
site location being relatively close to the lake shore and
previously mentioned lake breeze pushing inland will keep the window
for critical RHs short this afternoon -- most likely confined
between 1pm and 3pm. RHs are expected to rise between 25-35 percent
after the lake breeze moves through this afternoon into this
evening. Otherwise, temperatures look to warm into the mid 50s this
afternoon.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (10-20 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 57.
Min humidity........23 percent.
20-foot winds.......Light winds becoming northwest around 6 mph
                    late in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....Southeast 5 to 8 mph shifting to the east 6 to
                    7 mph early in the afternoon, then shifting to
                    the west around 7 mph late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......400-2100 ft AGL increasing to 4300-5700 ft AGL.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.
Ventilation index...Poor (33.0).

TIME (EDT)      7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........24  25  18  12  7   3   2   1   1   1   2
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............29  32  36  41  46  49  52  55  56  56  54
RH..............69  63  54  44  37  31  26  23  23  26  30
20 ft wind dir..SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SW  SW  SW  NW  NW  NW
20 ft wind spd..5   5   5   5   5   3   3   3   7   7   7
20 ft wind gust.8   8   8   8   8   6   6   6   12  12  12
Mix hgt (kft)...0.4 0.5 1.2 1.5 2.1 3.3 4.8 5.6 5.7 5.0 4.3
Haines index....4   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
Transp wind dir.S   SE  S   SE  SE  E   E   NE  NE  W   W
Transp wind spd.8   8   7   6   5   5   6   6   7   7   7
Vrate kt-ft.....33  41  82  86  98  150 278 322 393 342 299
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Clear (0-5 percent).
Min temperature.....Around 35.
Max humidity........66 percent.
20-foot winds.......Northwest winds around 5 mph early in the
                    evening becoming light, then becoming southeast
                    5 to 7 mph overnight.
Transport winds.....Northwest 5 to 7 mph shifting to the southeast
                    6 to 13 mph in the late evening and overnight,
                    then increasing to around 13 mph early in the
                    morning.
Mixing height.......900-2400 ft AGL decreasing to 300-500 ft AGL in
                    the late evening and overnight.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Ventilation index...Poor (17.0).

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........2   1   2   1   1   1   2   1   2   2   2   2
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............52  51  49  45  42  39  38  37  37  37  37  36
RH..............33  34  39  47  55  59  62  59  56  59  61  66
20 ft wind dir..NW  NW  NW  N   N   N   E   E   E   SE  SE  SE
20 ft wind spd..6   6   6   3   3   3   7   7   7   8   8   8
20 ft wind gust.10  10  10  8   8   8   12  12  12  13  13  13
Mix hgt (kft)...2.4 1.9 0.9 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5
Haines index....5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
Transp wind dir.W   W   NW  NW  E   E   SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
Transp wind spd.7   7   6   5   6   6   8   10  12  13  13  13
Vrate kt-ft.....163 131 54  17  20  18  27  38  49  56  55  59
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR

$$
Forecaster...DJC
Requested by...Brian Stearns
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2412395.0/APX
.DELDT 04/25/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL brian.stearns@usda.gov