000
FLUS44 KTSA 190217
HWOTSA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
915 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-191000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
915 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013

...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
RISK...LIMITED.
AREA...ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 75.
ONSET...AFTER 10 PM.

DISCUSSION...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD
EAST INTO EAST CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA TONIGHT. THE STORMS
HAVE A HISTORY OF PRODUCING SEVERE WIND GUSTS...BOTH ON THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE GUST FRONT...AND ON THEIR NORTHERN FRINGE WHERE HEAT
BURSTS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. THUS...DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
HAZARD WITH THE STORMS TONIGHT IF THEY ARE TO HOLD TOGETHER. THE
AREA MOST LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED WILL BE MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF
HIGHWAY 75. SOME LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A SHORT TIME AS
WELL IF NEW STORMS INITIATE ON THE SURGING OUTFLOW. STORMS SHOULD
DISSIPATE AS THEY TRAVEL FARTHER EAST INTO THE STRONGER CAP.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
LOCAL SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
SUNDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
MONDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
TUESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDS.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO LOOK SUPPORTIVE OF TORNADOES...SOME STRONG TO
EVEN VIOLENT...EXTREMELY LARGE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS BOTH SUNDAY
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA APPEARS MOST LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED BY THE
STRONGEST STORMS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...EVENTUALLY SPREADING EAST
INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SUNDAY NIGHT. THE AREA WITH THE GREATEST
SEVERE POTENTIAL ON MONDAY DEPENDS LARGELY ON EFFECTS FROM
STORMS SUNDAY NIGHT. IF A LARGE STORM CLUSTER CAN ORGANIZE SUNDAY
NIGHT...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL BE LAID OUT ON MONDAY ACROSS THE
REGION. STORMS THAT FORM NEAR THIS BOUNDARY MONDAY AFTERNOON
WOULD HAVE ELEVATED TORNADO POTENTIAL...AGAIN SOME OF THESE COULD
BE STRONG OR EVEN VIOLENT. THE FAVORED ZONE FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE
WEATHER ON MONDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE REFINED IN LATER OUTLOOKS.
REGARDLESS...MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS WILL
BE UNDER THE GUN FOR ANOTHER ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER DAY ON MONDAY.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL AGAIN SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SEVERE
STORMS ON TUESDAY...HOWEVER CONDITIONS APPEAR SLIGHTLY LESS FAVORED
FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER.  THE PATTERN ALOFT WILL CONTINUE
TO BECOME LESS CONDUCIVE FOR SEVERE WEATHER BY LATE WEEK.

THE REPEATED ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR
SLOW MOVING STORMS...WILL RAISE THE FLOODING POTENTIAL WITH TIME.
THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY PRESENT ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

AFTER A BRIEF BREAK FROM THE STORMS ON WEDNESDAY...SOME CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST AGAIN FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK
ALONG THE RETREATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WINDS ALOFT WILL BE WEAKER
BY THIS TIME...THUS SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL BE MUCH LESS
COMPARED THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...

AN ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER PERIOD IS EXPECTED WITH NUMEROUS
WATCHES AND WARNINGS BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  ADDITIONALLY...
GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER...ANY
DAMAGE RESPONSE SHOULD BE CLOSELY COORDINATED GIVEN CONTINUED
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL ON MONDAY. SOME SEVERE
POTENTIAL EVEN EXISTS ON TUESDAY AS WELL.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.
$$

LACY