Hazardous Weather Outlook
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FLUS44 KTSA 192152
HWOTSA

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
352 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-201200-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
352 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2018


...SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...HEAVY RAIN THREAT
OVERNIGHT...


This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.
TORNADO.
RISK...Limited.
AREA...Northeast Oklahoma.
ONSET...Late afternoon and evening.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
RISK...Limited.
AREA...Northeast Oklahoma.
ONSET...Late afternoon or evening.

FLASH FLOOD.
RISK...Limited.
AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.
ONSET...Tonight.

HEAVY RAIN.
RISK...Limited.
AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.
ONSET...Tonight.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
RISK...Limited.
AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.
ONSET...Ongoing.

DISCUSSION...
An active evening and overnight period as a cold front pushes in
from the north this afternoon and evening. Another round of
thunderstorms are expected to develop along and ahead of the cold
front by this evening with threat for marginally severe storms,
including a large hail and limited tornado threat. The greatest
threat for severe storms will remain generally north of Interstate
40.

Further south...the primary concern will be storms producing
locally heavy rainfall across southeast Oklahoma up through
northwest Arkansas. Several inches of rainfall are expected along
this axis through Tuesday with an increased concern for flooding
and flash flooding.

Southerly winds will continue to remain gusty tonight and Tuesday
with gusts of 25 to 30 mph common.


SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Local Spotter Activation May Be Needed.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.
TUESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...High Wind Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.
WEDNESDAY...Winter Weather Potential...High Wind Potential.
THURSDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.
FRIDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.
SATURDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
SUNDAY...No Hazards.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Several rounds of widespread shower and thunderstorm activity are
expected throughout the week, with the first round of significant
rainfall expected Tuesday and Tuesday night as the cold front
begins to push into the region. Locally heavy rainfall is likely
across portions of southeast Oklahoma into northwest Arkansas with
around 1 to 3 inches of rain possible as these locations will be
within a deep moist axis.

A period of light freezing rain will be possible across parts of
northeast Oklahoma late Tuesday night into early Wednesday
precipitation that lingers before temperatures rise above
freezing. There still remains uncertainty concerning icing
potential, so stay aware of the latest forecasts.

Warmer temperatures for the latter part of the work week will
coincide with additional chances for widespread, heavy rainfall.
The deep moist axis will once again setup across southeast
Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas, and additional amounts will have
the potential to create flash flooding and mainstem river
flooding by late Thursday or Friday, particularly areas that
remain saturated by the heavy rainfall earlier in the week.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
With a very unsettled pattern in place for this week, please pay
attention to the latest updates, and includes any flash flood and
river flood watches that may be posted given the current flood
potential. Overall rain amounts and areal coverage of rainfall
will be refined with later forecasts.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

$$


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