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000
FXAK67 PAJK 131348
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
548 AM AKDT Sat Apr 13 2024

.SHORT TERM...
Key Message:
-Intermittent rain and snow showers continue through this evening
-Mostly dry conditions expected by early week with
 increasing temperatures as high pressure moves over the area.

Discussion:
One last soggy day on tap for southeast Alaska as a deepening
mid/upper level trough and weak surface low developing over the
Kenai Peninsula and Prince William sound in the North Gulf of
Alaska will keep persistent post-FROPA southwesterly flow
overrunning the panhandle. Anticipating intermittent mix of rain
and snow showers through this evening as the system deepens and
meanders down the eastern edge of the Gulf in tandem with cooler
850mb temperatures. Winds within the inner channels will be less
than yesterday, below Small Craft Advisory levels, and should
gradually decrease throughout the day as the surface gradient
weakens/broadens and moves overhead into tonight. QPF and PoP
chances will continue to diminish north to south over the area
moving into Sunday as the mid/upper level aforementioned trough
continues to move down the west coast and over British Columbia.
Mostly dry conditions are expected Monday through the early half
of the work week for much of the AOR as mid/upper level ridging
and attendant surface high moves into the Eastern Gulf by Monday
afternoon.


.LONG TERM...

Headed into the long term, we will see showers continue for
portions of the panhandle but the overall coverage will continue
to decrease. There is a chance of some minor accumulations from
these showers but that will be limited to an inch or two at max.
These showers are expected to come to an end as we head into the
start of next week. As of right now, ensemble guidance continues
to show a ridge building into the area for the start of the week
which will lead to drying weather. With high pressure building
into the area, there is the potential for some fog during the
overnight hours with clearing skies. The one question that will
need to be answered as we get closer is how much moisture is
available during the overnight hours to help generate fog.

Towards the latter half of the long term, ensemble and
deterministic guidance is still struggling to agree on when the
ridge will break down allowing for more active weather to return.
Looking at the CPC 6-10 day outlook, we are expecting a 40% chance
of seeing warmer than normal temperatures for this time of the
year. For precipitation, the current outlook shows an equal chance
for either below normal, near normal, or above normal.

&&

.AVIATION.../12z issuance/...Saturday in SE AK will very much be a
post frontal day. So, showers with westerly flow will result in
rapidly changing conditions this morning. Overnight, MVFR conditions
have been reported around the region but as the day goes on, IFR
conditions are expected to develop with those conditions lasting
into tonight.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind until 7 AM AKDT this morning for AKZ318.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-641>644-651-661>664-671-672.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NM
LONG TERM....SF
AVIATION...GJS

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