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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 250123
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
923 PM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front drops through the area this evening keeping a
chance for scattered rain showers in the forecast. Strong high
pressure then builds east from the Great Lakes region on Thursday
before shifting offshore to end the week. After a couple of cooler
days, expect a significant warming trend next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 920 PM EDT Wednesday...

Surface analysis shows that the weak cold front is situated from
about FVX-SBY, with a subtle shortwave aloft tracking over West
Virginia tracking toward the area from the WNW. Scattered
showers and isolated tstms have formed just to the SE of the
boundary (mesoanalysis shows steep 0.5-2 km lapse rates despite
the developing inversion near the sfc w/ the loss of daytime
heating...resulting in 200-500 J/kg of MUCAPE). No severe wx is
expected, but small hail and gusts to 35 mph cannot be ruled
out. The highest tstm chances through 06z/2 AM are in areas just
to the west of the Ches Bay, with just isolated-scattered
showers possible elsewhere. Precip chances gradually diminish as
the cold front crosses the area later tonight. Overnight lows
fall into the mid-upper 40s inland, with lower 50s near the
coast and across most of NE NC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 230 PM EDT Wednesday...

Surface high pressure builds in from the Great Lakes region on
Thursday and extends across New England and the Mid-Atlantic. Partly
cloudy skies are expected with cooler high temperatures thanks to
onshore flow. Forecast has upper 50s to lower 60s across the east
and northeast, with mid to upper 60s across the southwest. Lows
Thursday night will be in the lower 40s, with northern areas
dropping to around 40 degrees. Inland spots of the Maryland
Eastern Shore may see upper 30s by Friday morning. This could
result in some patchy frost across these locations. The high
slides just offshore of New England on Friday keeping onshore
flow ongoing. Another cool day will be on tap with highs very
similar to Thursday. It will be a little bit milder Friday night
as the airmass modifies along that persistent onshore flow,
with lows staying in the mid 40s inland.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 230 PM EDT Wednesday...

A high amplitude ridge axis will be overhead on Saturday, with
surface high pressure settling in just off the New England coast. A
low pressure center will weaken as it drifts northward across
Minnesota, sending a warm front across the Ohio River Valley and
into the northern Mid-Atlantic Saturday morning. It may extend just
far enough south to give us a very slight chance of light rain
showers, particularly across the north and northwest section of the
CWA. Elsewhere, expect mostly cloudy skies and slightly warmer
temperatures, topping out around 70 degrees inland.

The upper ridge remains in place on Sunday. Skies will become partly
cloudy as temperatures warm rapidly. Expecting highs to reach 80
degrees to start off the new week. The ridge begins to break down a
bit later Monday as the axis shifts offshore. Temperatures will warm
even more as southwesterly flow enhances over the area. High temps
Monday are forecast to hit the mid 80s for most locations. A cold
front may push through later Tuesday giving us our next chance of
rain, however, models disagree on its strength and precise timing.
For now, kept temperatures in the mid to upper 80s as a late day
frontal passage will allow for peak heating to occur. Kept a slight
chance of rain/storms for the area in the afternoon. Expect low
temperatures to remain in the upper 50s to lower 60s during this
period.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 735 PM EDT Wednesday...

A cold front is still to the NW of the terminals this evening,
but it will cross the terminals tonight. Scattered showers will
persist INVOF RIC/PHF through 04-06z before gradually
diminishing. There is a slight chc of a tstm, but this is most
likely to the SW of RIC/PHF. Flight conditions should remain
VFR through tonight as the showers will be fairly light. Rain
chances end after 06z. Winds increase out of the NE (especially
near the coast where gusts of ~20 kt are expected) by 08-12z as
the front moves well to our south. Some MVFR stratus is
possible near the coast from late tonight through much of
Thursday with the onshore flow, with VFR CIGs expected to
prevail at RIC.

Outlook: Dry/VFR conditions will prevail from Thu night through
the weekend. Can`t rule out a stray shower on Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 245 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- SCAs for the coastal waters have been extended through Thursday
evening. Further extension into Friday is likely due to lingering
5ft+ seas

- Another round of SCAs in effect for the Chesapeake Bay starting
early Thursday morning.

A cold front is located NW of local waters this afternoon with high
pressure suppressed to the south. Ahead of the front, a line of
showers is crossing over the southernmost waters, leading to
occasional gustiness (~20kt). Latest obs show WSW winds at 10-15kt.
Waves are 1-2ft and seas are 4-5ft. Behind the front, winds will
turn to the NE and a relatively brief surge of winds is expected.
Winds increase after 06z. Winds over the bay will reach 15-20kt
early Thursday morning, then diminish to 10-15kt by the afternoon.
Waves will reach 2-4ft (5ft in mouth of bay). Expecting longer
duration and a bit stronger winds (20-25kt) over the coastal waters.
Winds will diminish over coastal waters late Thursday evening, but
will remain onshore through the weekend. Therefore, seas of 5-6ft
will linger, potentially into Friday afternoon.

Sub-SCA conditions are expected Sat-Tues. Onshore wind direction
will persist through Saturday with high pressure situated just to
the N of local waters. High pressure gets pushed to the S through
mid-week, allowing winds to turn to the S on Sunday.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 855 PM EDT Wednesday...

A prolonged period of NE flow is expected to begin tonight
behind a cold front passage, lingering into Friday. While
widespread coastal flooding is not expected, localized coastal
flooding is possible along portions of the James river with nuisance
to minor flooding possible during the Thursday night high
tide at Smithfield, VA.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 10 AM EDT Thursday for
     ANZ630-631.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 7 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ632-
     634.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM EDT Thursday for
     ANZ633.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 4 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ638.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MAM/JKP
NEAR TERM...ERI/JKP
SHORT TERM...JKP
LONG TERM...JKP
AVIATION...ERI/JKP
MARINE...AM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ