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000
FNUS71 KAKQ 161444
FWSAKQ

Spot Forecast for Bear Swamp Mega Day 2...the nature conservancy
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1044 AM EDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1200 EDT on April 16.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service at 757-899-5734.

.DISCUSSION...
Mostly sunny skies are expected today with good mixing. Minimum RH
values will be around 30 percent this afternoon with northeast
winds becoming southeast. Isolated showers are possible Wednesday
before a stronger cold front crosses the area towards the end of the
week.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (5-15 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 71.
Min humidity........29 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........East winds 5 to 6 mph shifting to the southeast
                    6 to 7 mph late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......4200 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....North 8 to 10 mph shifting to the west late in
                    the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (8700 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to good (30100 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
LVORI...............2.
ADI.................13 to 42.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........6   7   9   10  11  11
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............66  67  68  69  70  68
RH..............34  33  31  30  29  31
20 FT wind dir..NE  E   E   E   SE  SE
20 FT wind spd..7   7   6   6   6   6
20 FT wind gust.13  12  11  11  11  11
Mix hgt (kft)...3.3 3.8 4.2 3.6 3.0 2.4
Transp wind dir.NE  N   N   NW  W   W
Transp wind spd.10  9   8   6   5   5
LVORI...........1   1   1   2   2   2
ADI.............42  41  40  27  18  13
Haines index....4   5   5   5   4   4
Vrate kt-ft/1K..30  29  28  19  13  9
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (25-35 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (55-65 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain showers overnight.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 50.
Max humidity........80 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 5 to 6 mph early in the evening
                    becoming light.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 5 to 6 mph shifting to the south 2 to
                    6 mph early in the evening.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (800 knot-ft).
LVORI...............3.
ADI.................1 to 10.
Haines Index........2 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........13  14  16  18  20  23  34  45  56  58  60  61
Weather cov.....                                SCH SCH SCH SCH
Weather type....                                RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   20  20  20  20
Temp............67  66  62  60  58  57  56  55  54  53  53  52
RH..............33  34  41  44  49  51  53  57  59  64  66  71
20 FT wind dir..SE  S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   SE  SE
20 FT wind spd..6   5   5   5   4   4   4   4   4   4   3   3
20 FT wind gust.11  9   8   7   7   6   6   6   6   6   5   5
Mix hgt (kft)...1.7 1.1 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
Transp wind dir.W   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.5   6   6   6   6   5   5   5   5   3   2   2
LVORI...........2   2   2   2   2   2   2   3   3   3   3   3
ADI.............10  2   3   3   2   2   2   3   3   3   1   1
Haines index....4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   3   3   2
Vrate kt-ft/1K..7   5   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   1   1   1
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain showers early in the morning, then chance
                    of rain showers early in the morning.
Chance of pcpn......30 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 68.
Min humidity........61 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming southeast 5 to 8 mph early
                    in the morning.
Mixing height.......1500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 2 to 10 mph increasing to 13 to 14
                    mph late in the morning.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (900 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to fair (17600 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
LVORI...............4.
ADI.................2 to 26.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........65     73     82     89     96     94
Weather cov.....S CHC  CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).20     30     30     30     30     30
Temp............51     53     59     64     66     68
RH..............80     83     78     70     65     61
20 ft wind......SE 4   SE 5   SE 6   SE 7   SE 8   SE 8
20 ft wind gust.6      8      11     12     14     14
Mix hgt (ft)....400    500    1200   1500   1500   1200
Transport wind..S 2    SE 5   S 10   S 14   S 13   SE 13
LVORI...........4      5      4      3      3      2
ADI.............2      4      15     26     25     19
Haines index....2      2      2      2      2      2
Vrate kt-ft/1K..1      2      11     18     17     13
Ventrate Cat....POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR

$$
Forecaster...ROGERS
Requested by...Natasha Whetzell
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2410930.1/AKQ
.DELDT 04/16/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL Natasha.whetzel@tnc.org