390
FXUS61 KALY 070523
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
123 AM EDT Tue May 7 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Behind a departing cold front, clouds will be clearing
out for tonight.  High pressure will allow for a mostly sunny and
warmer day on Tuesday.  Another storm system will bring showers and
thunderstorms late Tuesday night into Wednesday, with more unsettled
and cooler weather expected for the late week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
.UPDATE...As of 120 AM EDT, high clouds are thinning across the
SW Adirondacks/Mohawk Valley region, and expect clearing from NW
to SE through daybreak. Temps have already dropped into the
lower/mid 40s across the SW Adirondacks, with generally upper
40s to mid/upper 50s elsewhere, warmest within the Hudson River
Valley.

Given low PWAT`s overspreading areas north of I-90, expect temps
to begin dropping off more rapidly toward daybreak, with min
temps around daybreak in the mid 30s to around 40 across the SW
Adirondacks, and lower/mid 40s across the upper Hudson Valley
and much of the Mohawk Valley. Elsewhere, min temps should reach
the mid 40s to around 50.

Patchy fog have developed within portions of the mid Hudson
Valley, however as drier air slowly advances farther south and
east, fog potential may decrease in this area. However,
patchy fog may form within some sheltered areas of the southern
Adirondacks and upper Hudson Valley around daybreak.

Main changes with this update were to lower temps across the SW
Adirondacks, with additional minor adjustments to
dewpoints/winds according to latest obs.

.PREV DISCUSSION [0730 PM EDT]...Slow moving surface cold front
has been taking its time crossing the forecast area today. The
boundary is finally getting close to passing through the
Catskills, Capital Region and southern VT. Behind the boundary,
lower clouds have cleared away (although some cirrus still
remains), and low level dewpoints have been falling with a west
to northwest breeze. Meanwhile, areas further south continue to
see widespread clouds, along with dewpoints well into the 50s to
near 60 and a light southerly flow.

Through the late evening hours, the front will continue to
slowly settle southward. A brief shower or sprinkle can`t be
ruled out with the passage for southern areas over the next few
hours, but any precip looks very spotty and brief. Otherwise,
clearing will finally be occurring for tonight from north to
south, especially after midnight with no additional precip.
With the lowering dewpoints, there shouldn`t be much fog around,
but can`t totally rule out some patchy fog in a sheltered area
if enough low level moisture remains around.

Temps tonight will be falling into the 40s across the entire
area, with the coldest temps over the Adirondacks.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Surface high pressure will be located over Ontario on Tuesday,
which will make for a pleasant day across the entire area. With
plenty of dry air in place aloft, skies should be fairly sunny
across the entire area. Model soundings suggest good mixing to
about 850 hpa and valley areas should top out in the mid 70s
(mid 60s to low 70s in the higher terrain). It should be fairly
dry thanks to the decent mixing and dewpoints should generally
be in the 40s, making for very comfortable weather to be
outdoors.

After sunset, clouds will be increasing for the first part of
Tuesday night as the next system starts to approach west. An
approaching warm front looks to bring some precip to the area
for late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, especially for
western and northern areas. A rumble of thunder may accompany
this activity. Lows should fall into the upper 40s to low 50s.

The warm front will be lifting northward, although it may get
hung up across our area for during the day on Wednesday. Models
aren`t clear if we fully get into the warm sector, as model
soundings suggest a low level inversion in place through much of
the day, which may keep clouds around. However, upper level
shortwave and surface low pressure will be tracking right across
the area for late Wed morning into Wed afternoon. If enough
clearing does occur, there could be the threat for some strong
storms. 0-6 km bulk shear looks impressive, with values in the
40-60+ kts at times. While the low level lapse rates may be low
due to the low clouds, the mid levels will start to see some
rather steep lapse rates. 12z BUFKIT soundings on both NAM/GFS
show 500-700 mb rates around 7 C/km. There should be decent
dynamics in place, but it will depend on the low level
instability. SPC has a marginal risk for southern areas at this
time and it will ultimately depend on how much clearing and
instability can occur. If we do get some breaks and temps reach
into the 70s, a broken line of storms could bring a threat for
gusty winds and hail for Wednesday afternoon, as the low tracks
eastward.

The threat for showers and storms will be ending on Wednesday
evening with clearing for Wednesday night. Temps should fall
into the mid 40s to mid 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Unsettled weather is expected through much of the long term
period.

A shortwave will be approaching from the Great Lakes on
Thursday. While the day may start off dry on Thursday, the
threat for showers will increase through the day and it should
be fairly wet by late Thursday across the entire area. With the
slow moving shortwave passing by to the south, wet weather will
continue for Thursday night into Friday as well, with our area
remaining on the cool northern side of the system. Although
temps should reach well into the 60s on Thursday, it looks cool
for Thursday night into Friday, with temps down into the 40s and
50s and skies remaining fairly cloudy.

Some brief ridging may return on Saturday. Although it will
start off fairly cloudy, some breaks of sun are possible,
especially for valley areas. Temps may still be cool, although
it will depend on much sunshine actually occurs. For now, will
go with temps in the 50s to low 60s across the area. Will still
mention a threat for showers in case the timing of shortwaves
changes.

The next system approaches for Sunday with more scattered
showers and continued mostly cloudy skies. Temps should
generally be in the 60s. Some warmer weather may finally return
by Monday, although the threat for scattered showers will still
be around.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 06Z Wednesday...Aside for some patchy MVFR/IFR radiational
mist/fog at KPOU/KGFL this morning, expect VFR conditions for all
the TAF sites the next 24 hours.  IFR mist/fog with brief periods of
LIFR are possible at KPOU this morning and a TEMPO group was used to
address this potential prior to 10Z/TUE.  KGFL may have a brief
period of MVFR mist between 08-11Z/TUE where we used a TEMPO. Sct-
bkn cirrus will keep VFR conditions at KALB/KPSF.

Expect mostly clear conditions in the late morning into tonight with
a few cumulus and a few cirrus late in the day as high pressure
builds in.

The winds will vary in direction at 4 KT or less to calm this
morning. They will be northeast to northwest at 4-8 KT in the late
morning through the afternoon...and become light to calm by
00Z/WED.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA.
Wednesday: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA.
Friday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA.
Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Frugis
NEAR TERM...Frugis/KL/Picard
SHORT TERM...Frugis
LONG TERM...Frugis
AVIATION...Wasula