Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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FXUS61 KALY 262330
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
730 PM EDT Tue Mar 26 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal system approaching from the west will bring periods
of rainfall to the area tonight through Wednesday. Additional
rainfall is expected on Thursday, especially for areas south
and east of the Capital District, as low pressure tracks
northeastward up the coast. Drier weather returns Friday into
the start of the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
.UPDATE...As of 0730 PM EDT, have made slight adjustments to
temperatures to better reflect latest regional ASOS and NYS
Mesonet observations. Snow cover across the region has
maintained much cooler temperatures compared to surrounding
parts of NY and New England, however temperatures were able to
exceed expectation by a couple degrees despite persistent
overcast thanks to the late March sun angle. Forecast otherwise
remains on track; see previous discussion below...

.PREV DISCUSSION [0345 PM EDT]...An upper-level trough will
slowly approach from the west through Wednesday. A surface low
will track northward toward Hudson Bay while its cold front
slowly tracks eastward across the region. Most of the upper-
level forcing will remain to our north and west through
Wednesday. This will cause the cold front to weaken and slow its
eastward progression. It will likely stall just to our south
and east by Wednesday afternoon. Despite the weakening of the
front, enough low-level convergence along the front will result
in some rain showers beginning in the overnight hours and
through the day Wednesday.

Farther east, onshore flow will continue across areas especially
to the east of the Hudson River. Forecast soundings suggest that
the low-levels will become fairly saturated tonight with drier
air in the mid-levels. This could support some drizzle or
patchy freezing drizzle, depending on whether surface
temperatures are above or below freezing. Freezing drizzle
looks to be mostly favored across the highest peaks of the
southern Greens and Berkshires with little or no ice accretion.
Due to the sparse coverage, have held off on a winter weather
advisory for these areas and may cover with a special weather
statement, if one is needed.

Cloudy/mostly cloudy conditions expected otherwise through
Wednesday. Lows tonight will only dip into the 30s with highs in
the upper 40s to mid 50s on Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Low pressure will develop along this stalled boundary across the
southeastern CONUS and track near or just off the east coast
through Thursday. Ample moisture with this low will lift
northeastward toward the region. This will bring another round
of rainfall to the region later Wednesday night and through the
day Thursday. The location of the front and track of the surface
low will determine where the axis of this rainfall will be.
Right now, rain is mostly favored for areas south and east of
the Capital District. Rainfall totals of 0.50 to 1.00 inches are
possible in these areas. While some area rivers may rise as a
result of this rainfall, no river flooding is expected at this
time. Lower precipitation chances and amounts are expected for
areas north and west. West of the area of rainfall, cold air
advection will begin to filter back into the region. It is
possible some higher terrain areas on the western edge of the
precipitation shield to have some wet snowflakes mix in with the
rain before ending, but no accumulation is expected. Highs on
Thursday will be mainly in the 40s with some localized upper 30s
across the higher elevations.

The low pressure system departs the region Thursday night into
Friday with drier weather returning. Highs on Friday will be
near seasonable levels (mid to upper 30s to lower 50s). Blustery
conditions are expected on Friday as well with some wind gusts
possibly exceeding 30 mph.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The extended forecast period opens with cold and blustery
conditions in the wake of the cyclone moving northeast from
near Cape Cod towards Nova Scotia Friday night. Mid and upper
level northwest flow will persist along with clearing skies
Friday night into Saturday morning. Lows fall into the 20s to
lower 30s with northwest winds 10-20 mph with gusts 25-35 mph+.
The final weekend of March opens on a cool and crisp note with
high pressure briefly building in. Some clouds may increase from
the south late in the day, as a low pressure system moves
across PA with a frontal boundary extending eastward. Highs will
reach the upper 40s to mid 50s in the lower elevations with 30s
to lower 40s over the higher terrain. Some isolated to
scattered light rain/snow showers are possible Saturday night
with the weak disturbance passing by the south of the forecast
area. This is due to weak isentropic lift. Lows fall back into
the mid 20s to mid 30s.

The second half of the weekend into early next week mid and
upper level ridging builds back in with fair and seasonably dry
weather. Some clouds increase ahead of the next storm system
late Monday with a slight chance of showers late in the day.
Temps will be near normal as we close March and open April with
highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s below 1000 feet in elevation
and upper 30s to mid 40s above it. Lows will be in the 20s and
lower 30s.

Monday night into Tuesday expect unsettled and inclement weather
to return to eastern NY and western New England. A strong mid
and upper level trough moves into the Midwest and Great Lakes
Region as ridging breaks down over the Northeast. Rain mixed
with some snow over the higher terrain breaks out ahead of the
warm front. The low pressure system may track north and west of
upstate NY for a transition to rain, but some uncertainty
continues in the medium range guidance/ensembles on the exact
track, which may impact the thermal profiles for rain/snow or
mixed precipitation. We have increased PoPS to likely values for
now and stayed with a warmer solution transitioning all the
pcpn to rain due to the track west of the forecast area on Tue
with highs in the upper 30s to upper 40s which will be slightly
below normal.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 00Z Thursday...MVFR stratus and strato-cu has largely
persisted across the region, while VFR cigs at POU are expected to
trend to MVFR by 06Z Wed. Elsewhere, MVFR cigs will trend toward
IFR, by 06Z Wed at PSF and by 12Z Wed at ALB/GFL. Vsbys will remain
unrestricted through this evening and early portions of the
overnight period at ALB/GFL/POU, while patchy drizzle near PSF may
lower vsbys beginning as early as 06Z.

Rain shower coverage will increase after 11-14Z as a cold front
approaches and begins to stall out over the region, with persistent
MVFR vsbys and IFR or low MVFR cigs expected at all terminals in
rain showers through much of the day Wednesday. Showers will begin
to decrease in coverage late in the period, after 21Z Wed.

Winds through the period remain light through the period. East to
southeast winds at 5 kt or less this evening will steadily veer,
becoming southerly by 12Z Wed.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...RA.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA.
Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of RA.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Windy With Gusts To 32 kts. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. Slight Chance of SHRA...SHSN.
Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Rathbun
NEAR TERM...Picard/Rathbun
SHORT TERM...Rathbun
LONG TERM...Wasula
AVIATION...Picard


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