Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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FXUS61 KALY 241751
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
151 PM EDT Sun Mar 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build in from southeast Canada
today with sunshine and below normal temperatures.  Fair and dry
conditions will continue into Tuesday with moderating
temperatures back to normal late March readings.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
.Update as of 1030 am EDT...High pressure continues to ridge in
from south of James Bay. The strong subsidence from the
anticyclone will yield mostly sunny/sunny conditions.
North/northwest winds of 5-15 mph will occur due to some mixing
and the sfc pressure gradient between the sfc high and the low
pressure system that impacted the region yesterday which is now
in the Gulf of St Lawrence. Some adjustments to winds, temp
trends and sky cover with this update. It should be noted that
some locations radiated well with the deep snow pack north and
west of the Capital Region. KGFL fell to -3F! That is the
coldest morning since Jan 22, when it fell to -4F. It was also
the last time KGFL fell below zero. The sun should help sublime
and melt the snow and ice a bit today on trees as well get into
the upper 20s to lower 40s across the region.

.PREV DISCUSSION [0648 EM EDT]...

High pressure controls the weather today. Some morning clouds in
parts of the southern Adirondacks. Otherwise, a mostly sunny
sky and light north winds. Some melting of the snow and ice will
occur. Highs in the upper 30s to lower 40s with around 30 to
mid 30s higher terrain.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure continues to control our weather. Although, an
upper cut off low off the mid Atlantic states and associated
surface low pressure will tighten the pressure gradient around
the mid Hudson Valley, NW CT and southern Berkshires, where
north to northeast winds will be steadier. Temperatures drop
quickly tonight with good radiational cooling where the winds
become calm.

Light winds and sunshine Wednesday as upper ridging builds in
from the west and the cold airmass slowly lifts north, allowing
warm advection into our region. Boundary layer winds will be
east with surface winds from the north, so with ice and snow
still on the ground in many areas, temperatures will be slow to
warm. Highs Monday in the mid to upper 40s with around 40 to
lower 40s higher terrain. Good radiational cooling conditions
are possible again Monday night.

There are some disagreements with how close the offshore upper
low and surface low back toward the coast by Tuesday. Some
clouds and moisture off the ocean could back into western New
England and the mid Hudson Valley, while thickening high clouds
could spread over the rest of the region Tuesday afternoon. Warm
advection continues with the upper ridging in our region but if
the sky becomes mostly cloudy to cloudy Tuesday afternoon,
warming will be limited. Highs Tuesday in the mid 40s to near
50, with potentially the most sunshine on Tuesday in northern
and western areas.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The beginning of the long term forecast period sees the break down
of high pressure as a storm system approaches from the west. Though
Tuesday night should remain primarily dry, some showers are possible
in our western New England zones in response to an inverted trough
nearing the New England Coast.

By early Wednesday morning, a large amplitude trough begins to
approach the region, its associated low pressure center displaced
north and west of the western Great Lakes in south-central Ontario.
Showers will develop out ahead of the system`s cold front thanks to
southwesterly flow aloft providing a modest moisture fetch off the
Gulf. Resulting precipitation type will be rain across the region
courtesy of antecedent warm temperatures. Rain showers will continue
Wednesday into Thursday as cyclonic flow persists with the upper-
level trough axis remaining displaced just to our west. While there
is some uncertainty as to exactly when showers will begin to taper
off as a result of timing discrepancies in the passage of the front,
maintained scattered to chance PoPs through Thursday to account for
a slower progression. Then, decreased coverage but left scattered
chance PoPs through Saturday mainly for high terrain areas where
upslope flow could aid in the generation of additional showers as
upper energy tracks through the persistent cyclonic flow. All
showers over the span of Wednesday through Saturday will be light in
nature and scattered to isolated after Wednesday.

Highs throughout the long term will primarily span the 40s to low
50s with upper 30s possible above 1500 ft Friday and Saturday.
Wednesday will be the warmest day of the period with upper 40s to
mid 50s across the region. Low temperatures will primarily range
from the upper 20s to low/mid 30s with the exception of Tuesday and
Wednesday nights where lows will be in the 30s to possibly low
40s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure firmly in place across the region this afternoon
following the departure of yesterday`s storm system. Mostly
clear skies prevailing this afternoon, however some low-level CU
has formed across the Capital District and southern Adirondacks
regions. For now, have included a SCT mention at PSF/ALB/GFL,
and these clouds should dissipate late this afternoon/early
evening. Otherwise, expect light and variable winds, generally
from the north between 4-8 kts through the period.

Outlook...

Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA.
Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...SHSN.
Friday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. Slight Chance of SHRA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Flood Warnings have been issued for Brookfield on the Still
River, Gaylordsville and Stevenson Dam on the Housatonic. Falls
Village may reach minor flood stage late this morning or early
afternoon.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please
visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs
on our website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NAS/Wasula
NEAR TERM...NAS/Wasula
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...Gant
AVIATION...32
HYDROLOGY...NAS


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