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000
FNUS73 KAPX 222223
FWSAPX

Spot Forecast for Wilbur...USFS
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
623 PM EDT Mon Apr 22 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 EDT on April 23.
If conditions become unrepresentative... contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at (989)732-9306, if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

.DISCUSSION...Clouds will begin to increase this evening in response to rain
showers tracking across northern lower Michigan tonight. Rainfall
amounts of 0.10" and 0.30" are expected for most areas. Southwest
winds will remain breezy tonight, and become west on Tuesday. A
slight break in shower activity could occur Tuesday morning, but
additional showers and possibly an embedded thunderstorm, are
expected for Tuesday afternoon/evening.

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent). Rain showers
                    likely and slight chance of thunderstorms late
                    in the afternoon.
Max temperature.....Around 66.
Min humidity........31 percent.
20-foot winds.......Southwest winds 12 to 14 mph with gusts to
                    around 28 mph. Gusty and erratic winds expected
                    near thunderstorms late in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....West 22 to 28 mph.
Mixing height.......1900-3100 ft AGL increasing to 4400 ft AGL
                    early in the afternoon, then increasing to 8000
                    ft AGL early in the afternoon increasing to
                    9500-10300 ft AGL late in the afternoon
                    decreasing to 8200 ft AGL.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Ventilation index...Fair to good (470.0-955.0) increasing to
                    excellent (2031.0) early in the afternoon, then
                    increasing to excellent (2516.0) late in the
                    afternoon decreasing to excellent (1973.0) late
                    in the afternoon.

TIME (EDT)      5AM 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM
Sky (%).........57  43  25  30  41  52  56  63  63
Weather cov.....                    LKY LKY LKY LKY
Weather type....                    RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........                    SCH SCH SCH SCH
Temp............49  54  59  62  64  66  65  65  63
RH..............70  61  53  45  37  32  31  32  34
20 ft wind dir..SW  SW  SW  W   W   W   W   W   W
20 ft wind spd..15  15  15  17  17  17  16  16  16
20 ft wind gust.25  25  25  28  28  28  28  28  28
Mix hgt (kft)...1.9 2.3 3.1 4.4 8.0 10  10  9.5 8.2
Haines index....5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
Transp wind dir.SW  SW  SW  W   W   W   W   W   W
Transp wind spd.24  24  23  22  25  28  28  26  24
Vrate kt-ft.....470 567 724 955 20312837277925161973
Ventrate Cat....FR  FR  GD  GD  EXL EXL EXL EXL EXL

.TUESDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (60-70 percent). Rain showers
                    likely and chance of thunderstorms in the
                    evening, then chance of rain showers and slight
                    chance of snow showers overnight.
Min temperature.....Around 25.
Max humidity........79 percent.
20-foot winds.......Northwest winds 8 to 12 mph shifting to the
                    north 9 to 13 mph in the late evening and
                    overnight. Gusty and erratic winds expected
                    near thunderstorms in the evening.
Transport winds.....West 17 to 22 mph shifting to the north 15 to
                    22 mph in the late evening and overnight.
Mixing height.......5900 ft AGL decreasing to 1700-2400 ft AGL.
Haines Index........3 to 5 or very low to moderate potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.
Ventilation index...Good to very good (860.0-1292.0) decreasing to
                    poor to fair (247.0-527.0) early in the
                    evening.

TIME (EDT)      2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM
Sky (%).........66  68  72  68  64  60  66  71  77  70  64  57
Weather cov.....LKY LKY CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC SCH SCH SCH SCH
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RS  SW  SW  SW
Tstm cov........SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC
Temp............61  59  54  51  47  44  40  37  34  31  29  28
RH..............37  42  54  61  68  73  79  75  75  75  72  66
20 ft wind dir..W   W   W   NW  NW  NW  N   N   N   N   N   N
20 ft wind spd..14  14  14  13  13  13  15  15  15  16  16  16
20 ft wind gust.23  23  23  18  18  18  24  24  24  25  25  25
Mix hgt (kft)...5.9 3.9 2.1 1.7 1.7 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.4
Haines index....5   5   4   4   4   4   4   4   3   3   3   3
Transp wind dir.W   W   W   NW  N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N
Transp wind spd.22  22  21  17  15  16  18  20  21  22  22  22
Vrate kt-ft.....1292860 430 291 247 299 368 423 460 496 519 527
Ventrate Cat....VGD GD  FR  PR  PR  PR  PR  FR  FR  FR  FR  FR

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (20-30 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 44.
Min humidity........24 percent.
20-foot winds.......North winds 7 to 12 mph.
Transport winds.....North 13 to 22 mph decreasing to 9 to 12 mph
                    late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......2300-4100 ft AGL increasing to 4200-4400 ft AGL
                    late in the afternoon.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.
Ventilation index...Poor to fair (387.0-570.0).

TIME (EDT)      2 AM   4 AM   6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON
Sky (%).........44     19     9      4      4      3
Weather cov.....S CHC
Weather type....SNSHWR NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
Temp............26     26     32     36     40     43
RH..............65     62     45     35     27     24
20 ft wind dir..N      N      N      NE     NE     NE
20 ft wind spd..15     15     13     12     12     10
20 ft wind gust.23     23     20     17     17     15
Mix hgt (ft)....2400   2400   3100   3800   4100   4400
Haines index....3      4      4      4      4      4
Transport wind..N 22   N 20   N 17   N 15   N 12   N 9
Vrate kt-ft.....504    465    546    553    472    430
Ventrate Cat....FAIR   FAIR   FAIR   FAIR   FAIR   FAIR

$$
Forecaster...MLR
Requested by...Travis Wiltse
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2411589.2/APX
.DELDT 04/22/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL Travis.a.wiltse@usda.gov