779
FNUS73 KAPX 011819
FWSAPX

Spot Forecast for Allen Road SVE RX...USFS
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
219 PM EDT Wed May 1 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1100 EDT on May 02.
If conditions become unrepresentative... contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at (989)732-9306, if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...Gusty west winds continue this afternoon at the burn site
with temperatures in the 70s and RHs falling to the upper 20s to near
30 percent. Good RH recovery overnight with diminishing winds. Increasing
and thickening clouds expected on Thursday with eventually some showers arriving
later in the day and especially Thursday night into Friday. Not quite as warm
Thursday with initial northerly winds shifting more east-southeasterly during the
afternoon.

For an updated spot forecast overnight, please submit another request with a
future date/time.

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (50-60 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 65.
Min humidity........44 percent.
20-foot winds.......Light winds becoming southeast 5 to 6 mph in
                    the afternoon.
Transport winds.....Northeast around 6 mph shifting to the
                    southeast 6 to 8 mph early in the afternoon,
                    then increasing to around 9 mph late in the
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......2300-3300 ft AGL.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Ventilation index...Poor (133.0).

TIME (EDT)      11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........43  40  52  62  68  67  67
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............55  58  61  62  62  63  63
RH..............61  55  49  48  48  44  44
20 ft wind dir..NE  E   E   E   SE  SE  SE
20 ft wind spd..3   7   7   7   7   7   7
20 ft wind gust.7   10  10  10  10  10  10
Mix hgt (kft)...2.3 2.6 3.1 3.3 3.0 2.7 2.3
Haines index....4   4   4   4   4   4   4
Transp wind dir.NE  E   SE  SE  SE  S   SE
Transp wind spd.6   6   7   8   8   9   9
Vrate kt-ft.....133 150 215 265 243 248 209
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR

.THURSDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain showers early in the evening. Chance of
                    rain showers and slight chance of thunderstorms
                    overnight.
Min temperature.....Around 44.
Max humidity........88 percent.
20-foot winds.......East winds 5 to 6 mph. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms overnight.
Transport winds.....East 8 to 10 mph.
Mixing height.......400-1900 ft AGL.
Haines Index........2 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.
Ventilation index...Poor (30.0).

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........62  58  64  66  72  79  81  84  86  80  74  68
Weather cov.....        SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....        RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........                                SCH SCH SCH SCH
Temp............61  58  54  52  50  49  48  47  47  46  46  46
RH..............48  51  61  66  70  74  76  78  79  82  84  86
20 ft wind dir..E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   SE  SE  SE
20 ft wind spd..8   8   8   7   7   7   6   6   6   7   7   7
20 ft wind gust.12  12  12  10  10  10  9   9   9   9   9   9
Mix hgt (kft)...1.9 1.2 1.1 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4
Haines index....4   4   3   3   3   3   3   3   2   2   2   2
Transp wind dir.SE  E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   SE  SE  SE
Transp wind spd.9   10  10  9   10  10  9   9   10  9   9   8
Vrate kt-ft.....174 123 115 70  55  57  47  49  55  47  36  30
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers in the morning and early afternoon.
                    Rain showers likely late in the afternoon.
Max temperature.....Around 71.
Min humidity........56 percent.
20-foot winds.......Southeast winds 6 to 8 mph shifting to the
                    south around 8 mph in the afternoon. Gusty and
                    erratic winds expected near thunderstorms early
                    in the morning. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms late in the
                    morning.
Transport winds.....South 8 to 12 mph shifting to the west around
                    10 mph late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......400-2000 ft AGL increasing to 1700-2600 ft AGL
                    in the afternoon.
Haines Index........2 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.
Ventilation index...Poor (31.0).

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........68     68     75     81     87     84
Weather cov.....CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE LIKELY LIKELY
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........S CHC                S CHC  S CHC  S CHC
Temp............46     49     58     65     69     69
RH..............88     86     71     61     57     57
20 ft wind dir..SE     SE     SE     S      S      SW
20 ft wind spd..7      7      8      9      9      8
20 ft wind gust.9      9      12     12     12     12
Mix hgt (ft)....400    600    1200   2000   2600   2100
Haines index....2      3      3      3      4      4
Transport wind..SE 8   SE 10  S 12   S 12   SW 12  W 10
Vrate kt-ft.....31     58     136    238    301    230
Ventrate Cat....POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR

$$
Forecaster...MJG
Requested by...Corey Smith
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2412949.0/APX
.DELDT 05/01/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL corey.smith@usda.gov