Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

000
FNUS73 KAPX 161300
FWSAPX

Spot Forecast for Reid Lake RX...US Forest Service
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
900 AM EDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1000 EDT on April 16.
If conditions become unrepresentative... contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at (989)732-9306, if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...

Elevated fire danger will be in place this afternoon at the forecast
location. Current light east winds will increase to around 10 mph
with gusts around 15 mph by late morning. Winds are expected
to gradually increase this afternoon, gusting to 15-25 mph at times
by sunset. Plentiful sunshine combined with these winds will promote
strong mixing this afternoon, leading to afternoon temps near 60 and
minimum RH values between 20-25%. Any localized downwind low-lying
areas will be susceptible to low-mid 60s temperatures and RHs mixing
into the upper teens. Near-critical RHs are anticipated by 1 PM with
critical RHs most likely between 2 PM - 6 PM today. Warmer air aloft
will act to keep mixing heights relatively low, which in turn will
keep our ventilation rate in the poor category through the day. Rain
chances return to the area overnight and Wednesday.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 58.
Min humidity........26 percent.
20-foot winds.......East winds 5 to 8 mph.
Transport winds.....East 9 to 15 mph.
Mixing height.......1400-3300 ft AGL.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.
Ventilation index...Poor (126.0).

TIME (EDT)      10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........7   8   10  14  14  23  30  24
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............47  51  53  55  57  57  56  55
RH..............53  44  38  32  28  27  26  27
20 ft wind dir..E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E
20 ft wind spd..7   7   9   9   9   10  10  10
20 ft wind gust.12  12  13  13  13  16  16  16
Mix hgt (kft)...1.4 2.1 2.7 3.1 3.3 3.2 2.8 2.5
Haines index....5   5   5   5   4   4   4   4
Transp wind dir.E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E
Transp wind spd.9   9   10  10  12  12  13  15
Vrate kt-ft.....126 194 284 320 378 370 358 374
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (30-40 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Rain likely
                    overnight. Rain early in the morning.
Min temperature.....Around 39.
Max humidity........85 percent.
20-foot winds.......East winds 8 to 13 mph. Gusts up to 26 mph
                    increasing to 35 mph overnight.
Transport winds.....East 15 to 21 mph.
Mixing height.......700-2000 ft AGL.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Ventilation index...Poor (121.0).

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........17  29  38  44  50  56  66  69  68  74  85  90
Weather cov.....                                LKY LKY LKY DEF
Weather type....                                RN  RN  RN  RN
Tstm cov........
Temp............52  49  46  44  43  42  41  41  41  41  41  41
RH..............31  37  45  51  55  60  65  65  67  70  73  78
20 ft wind dir..E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E
20 ft wind spd..10  10  10  13  13  13  16  16  16  15  15  15
20 ft wind gust.21  21  21  26  26  26  35  35  35  33  33  33
Mix hgt (kft)...2.0 1.6 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9
Haines index....4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4
Transp wind dir.E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   SE  SE  E   E
Transp wind spd.16  17  15  15  18  18  18  20  21  20  20  20
Vrate kt-ft.....323 274 129 121 162 141 137 167 183 184 177 175
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (90-100 percent). Rain early in the
                    morning, then rain showers early in the
                    morning.
Max temperature.....Around 49.
Min humidity........73 percent.
20-foot winds.......East winds 12 to 16 mph with gusts to around 33
                    mph. Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms late in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....Southeast 21 to 28 mph.
Mixing height.......1000-1500 ft AGL.
Haines Index........2 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.
Ventilation index...Poor to fair (213.0-413.0).

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........96     92     93     94     94     94
Weather cov.....DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE
Weather type....RAIN   RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........
Temp............40     40     43     44     46     47
RH..............83     85     83     84     80     78
20 ft wind dir..E      E      E      E      E      E
20 ft wind spd..17     17     18     17     17     16
20 ft wind gust.33     33     31     28     28     26
Mix hgt (ft)....1000   1400   1400   1300   1300   1300
Haines index....4      2      2      2      2      2
Transport wind..SE 21  SE 24  SE 26  SE 26  SE 25  SE 25
Vrate kt-ft.....213    347    370    346    326    334
Ventrate Cat....POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR

$$
Forecaster...JHV
Requested by...Corey Smith
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2410991.1/APX
.DELDT 04/16/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL corey.smith@usda.gov