Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

Home |  Current Version |  Previous Version |  Text Only |  Print | Product List |  Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4
728
FNUS71 KBGM 070937
FWSBGM

Spot Forecast for SGL 300 - Top Road...PA Game Commission
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
537 AM EDT Tue May 7 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 EDT on May 07.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

A much drier air mass worked its way into Lackawanna County overnight,
especially the higher terrain such as the SGL 300 Top Road prescribed
burn location. This has resulted in much lower humidity than usual to
start off the day, instead of a humidity recovery. High pressure will
yield a sunny dry day. Even though there will be preferred wind directions
out of the northeast to northwest, they will be light enough for the
sunlit southerly aspects to cause fluctuating winds. Expect an often
battling wind direction, and an occasional oddball gust above 10 mph.
A warm front tonight will bring about a tenth of an inch or so of
rain to the fire area.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (5-15 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Max temperature.....Around 74.
Min humidity........30 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......Northeast to variable winds 5 to 7 mph shifting to
                    the northwest 7 to 9 mph in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......5700 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....North around 7 mph shifting to the northwest 8
                    to 9 mph in the afternoon.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
SUNSET.............. 807 PM EDT
LVORI...............2.
ADI.................13 early in the morning increasing to 62 in the
                    afternoon.

TIME (EDT)      9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........8   7   7   6   6   4   8   15  9
Weather cov.....
Weather type.... N O N E - D R Y  A N D  S U N N Y
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............58  62  65  67  71  72  73  74  74
RH..............37  38  40  37  32  30  31  32  34
20 FT wind dir..NE  NE  VRB VRB VRB NW  NW  W   SW
20 FT wind spd..6   4   5   7   7   8   8   9   9
20 FT wind gust.8   7   7   9   10  10  10  12  11
Mix hgt (kft)...1.3 2.1 2.9 3.8 4.6 5.2 5.6 5.7 5.3
Transp wind dir.N   N   NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  W   W
Transp wind spd.7   7   7   8   8   9   9   9   9
LVORI...........2   2   2   1   1   1   1   1   1
ADI.............13  19  26  36  47  55  61  62  56
Haines index....4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (20-30 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Rain showers and
                    chance of thunderstorms overnight.
CWR.................0 percent increasing to 80 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms until 0300, then 1-8 strikes.
Min temperature.....Around 59.
Max humidity........96 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......Southwest winds 6 to 8 mph increasing to south
                    around 14 mph.
Mixing height.......100 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest around 8 mph shifting to the southeast
                    6 to 7 mph in early evening, then south 9 to 18 mph
overnight.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.
SUNRISE............. 550 AM EDT
LVORI...............3.
ADI.................0 to 39.

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........22  30  32  54  61  68  75  82  87  94  100 100
Weather cov.....                             CHANCE -> LIKELY
Weather type....                               S H O W E R S
Tstm cov........                           SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   30  60  80  70
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   2   3   3
Temp............73  69  66  62  60  59  59  59  59  60  60  59
RH..............37  44  50  62  72  80  80  83  87  84  90  93
20 FT wind dir..W   W   SW  S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..8   7   6   7   8   9   10  10  13  14  16  18
20 FT wind gust.10  9   7   8   9   10  12  12  14  15  18  21
Mix hgt (kft)...3.8 2.0 0.5 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7
Transp wind dir.NW  NE  E   E   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.8   6   5   6   7   9   10  10  12  14  16  18
LVORI...........1   2   2   3   3   4   4   4   5   4   5   5
ADI.............39  18  2   0   3   8   9   9   10  11  13  16
Haines index....4   4   4   4   4   4   4   3   3   3   3   3

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent) then decreasing
                    clouds (30-40 percent). Showers likely
                    and chance of thunderstorms in the morning,
                    then still a small chance of showers and
                    thunderstorms in the afternoon.
CWR.................60 percent decreasing to 10 percent.
LAL.................9-15 strikes until 0800, then 1-8 strikes until
                    1000, then No Tstms until 1300, then 1-8
                    strikes.
Max temperature.....Around 75.
Min humidity........41 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......Southwest winds 20 to 21 mph shifting to the
                    west 21 to 23 mph in the afternoon. Gusty and erratic
                    near any thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......6800 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 20 to 21 mph shifting to the west 21
                    to 30 mph late in the morning.
Haines Index........3 to 5 or very low to moderate potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.
SUNSET.............. 808 PM EDT
LVORI...............3.
ADI.................19 early in the morning increasing to 138 in
                    the afternoon.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky (%).........94        71        60        28
Weather cov.....LIKELY    CHANCE    SLIGHT CHANCE OF
Weather type....SHOWERS   SHOWERS    S H O W E R S
Tstm cov........CHANCE     SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER
CWR.............60        30        20        10
LAL.............3         2         1         2
Temp............60        62        67        73
RH..............93        93        70        49
20 FT wind......S 20G22   SW 21G22  W 21G23   W 22G25
Mix hgt (ft)....700       1600      4000      6500
Transport wind..SW 20     SW 21     W 21      W 26
LVORI...........5         4         3         1
ADI.............19        33        66        123
Haines index....3         4         4         5

$$
Forecaster...Pellerito
Requested by...Pat McElhenny
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2413302.0/BGM
.DELDT 05/07/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL pmcelhenny@tnc.org