Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND
532 FNUS73 KBIS 011316 FWSBIS Spot Forecast for W Cross Fence...TNC National Weather Service Bismarck ND 816 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024 Forecast is based on ignition time of 1200 CDT on May 01. If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather Service. .DISCUSSION... Mainly clear skies will be found across the fire area through the early afternoon. Clouds will then increase this afternoon, with a slight chance of showers later this afternoon. Showers will then become likely this evening, with some scattered showers possible overnight. More widespread showers are then expected for Thursday, with perhaps an isolated thunderstorm in the afternoon. Humidity values will be near 40 percent today, then on the rise through Thursday. Winds will generally be westerly today, briefly becoming easterly tonight, then back to westerly on Thursday. Wind speeds will be around 10 mph through the forecast. .REST OF TODAY... Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny then becoming partly to mostly cloudy. Slight chance of rain late in the afternoon. CWR.................Less than 5 percent. Chance of pcpn......15 percent. LAL.................1. Max temperature.....Around 58. Min humidity........42 percent. Wind (20 ft)........West winds 6 to 12 mph. Mixing height.......6800 ft AGL. Transport winds.....West 10 to 15 mph shifting to the southwest around 10 mph late in the afternoon. Smoke dispersal.....Fair (43400 knot-ft) early in the morning increasing to good (60900 knot-ft) in the afternoon. Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume dominated fire growth. TIME (CDT) 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM Sky (%).........28 48 70 75 76 79 Weather cov..... Weather type.... Tstm cov........ CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0 5 15 LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 Temp............52 54 55 55 56 56 RH..............54 48 47 47 42 43 20 FT wind dir..W W W W W W 20 FT wind spd..9 9 9 8 8 8 20 FT wind gust.13 12 13 11 12 11 Mix hgt (kft)...3.6 4.6 5.6 5.8 6.8 6.3 Transp wind dir.W W W W SW S Transp wind spd.14 13 12 10 10 9 Haines index....5 5 5 5 5 5 Dispr kt-ft/1K..43 51 56 52 61 51 .TONIGHT... Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy. Rain showers likely in the evening, then chance of rain showers overnight. CWR.................50 percent in the evening, then decreasing to 25 percent overnight. Chance of pcpn......60 percent. LAL.................1. Min temperature.....Around 39. Max humidity........100 percent. Wind (20 ft)........Easterly 6 to 12 mph, becoming variable 5 to 10 mph after midnight. Mixing height.......500 ft AGL. Transport winds.....South around 10 mph in the evening, becoming variable 5 to 10 mph after midnight. Smoke dispersal.....Poor (3600 knot-ft). Haines Index........2 to 5 or very low to moderate potential for large plume dominated fire growth. TIME (CDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM Sky (%).........86 90 92 92 95 95 94 93 90 79 78 77 Weather cov.....SCH CHC CHC LKY CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC Weather type....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW Tstm cov........ CWR.............0 50 50 50 50 50 50 30 30 30 20 20 Chc of pcpn (%).20 40 50 60 50 50 40 40 40 40 40 30 LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Temp............55 53 51 48 46 45 44 43 42 41 42 41 RH..............45 50 61 65 76 79 86 93 96 100 96 96 20 FT wind dir..NW NE E E E E SE SE E E S S 20 FT wind spd..6 6 7 7 7 9 9 10 9 9 8 7 20 FT wind gust.9 9 10 10 11 12 13 14 14 13 12 11 Mix hgt (kft)...4.3 3.8 1.5 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 Transp wind dir.S N S E E E SE SE SE E SE SW Transp wind spd.8 7 8 8 10 12 14 13 12 10 9 8 Haines index....5 5 4 3 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 Dispr kt-ft/1K..30 23 10 4 5 7 9 8 6 5 5 4 .THURSDAY... Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy. Rain showers likely, with a slight chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. CWR.................20 percent increasing to 80 percent in the afternoon. Chance of pcpn......80 percent. LAL.................1 until 1600, then 2. Max temperature.....Around 54. Min humidity........57 percent. Wind (20 ft)........West northwest winds 6 to 12 mph. Gusty and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms late in the afternoon. Mixing height.......5200 ft AGL. Transport winds.....West 7 to 14 mph. Smoke dispersal.....Poor (3600 knot-ft) early in the morning increasing to good (62600 knot-ft) in the afternoon. Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. TIME (CDT) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM Sky (%).........77 63 64 68 Weather cov.....CHANCE LIKELY LIKELY DEFNTE Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR Tstm cov........ CWR.............20 20 20 80 Chc of pcpn (%).30 70 70 80 LAL.............1 1 1 1 Temp............41 43 49 52 RH..............100 96 76 58 20 FT wind......SW 7G10 W 6G9 NW 6G10 NW 9G13 Mix hgt (ft)....500 1300 3000 4700 Transport wind..W 8 W 8 NW 8 W 13 Haines index....3 3 3 4 Dispr kt-ft/1K..4 9 20 52 $$ Forecaster...ANGLIN Requested by...Chris Gordon Type of request...PRESCRIBED .TAG 2412895.0/BIS .DELDT 05/01/24 .FormatterVersion 2.0.0 .EMAIL chris_gordon@tnc.org