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Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Boston, MA
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FNUS71 KBOX 181018
FWSBOX

Spot Forecast for Bolton Flats WMA Rx Burn...MassWildlife
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
618 AM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0700 EDT on April 18.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National
Weather Service.

.DISCUSSION...

A warm front remains shunted to our southwest today, but will
could bring some isolated showers to the Bolton Flats WMA area.
Timing wise looks more likely during the afternoon (after 11 AM to
1 PM) than the morning. Dry for much of Friday as high pressure
nudges in from Nova Scotia.

Minimum relative humidities range from 55 to 60 percent today and
40 to 45 percent on Friday for the Bolton area.

.OUTLOOK...Friday Night through Wednesday...

A cold front crosses the region late Friday into early Saturday
bringing light rain showers. Best shot for a wetting rain across
Cape Cod and the Islands. Dry with gusty winds for the rest of
Saturday and Sunday. The dry weather persists as we head into
next week. Turning more unsettled as we head into midweek.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy. Slight chance of rain showers in the
                    morning, then chance of rain showers in the
                    late morning and afternoon.
CWR.................0 percent increasing to 11 percent late in the
                    afternoon.
Max temperature.....Around 49.
Min humidity........55 to 60 percent.
Dewpoint............34.
Max apparent temp...44.
Surface winds (mph).East winds 6 to 8 mph.
Wind (20 ft)........East winds 6 to 8 mph.
Mixing height.......1200 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....East 12 to 15 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (10600 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to fair (14100 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
LVORI...............3.
ADI.................15 to 20.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
CEILING (KFT).......4.5.

TIME (EDT)      7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........95  97  97  97  98  98  99  99  99  97  97
Weather cov.....SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   10  10  10  10
Temp............45  46  46  47  47  47  48  47  47  47  46
Dewpoint........35  35  35  34  34  35  34  34  34  35  35
RH..............68  65  65  60  60  63  58  60  60  63  65
Heat index (F)..42  43  42  44  43  43  44  43  43  43  42
20 FT wind dir..E   E   E   E   E   E   E   NE  NE  NE  NE
20 FT wind spd..6   6   7   7   8   8   8   8   8   8   8
20 FT wind gust.15  16  16  17  18  17  17  17  16  16  15
Surface wnd dir.E   E   E   E   E   E   E   NE  NE  NE  NE
Surface wnd spd.6   6   7   7   8   8   8   8   8   8   8
Surface wnd gst.15  16  16  17  18  17  17  17  16  16  15
Mix hgt (kft)...1.0 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2
Transp wind dir.E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E
Transp wind spd.15  15  15  14  14  13  13  12  12  12  12
LVORI...........3   3   3   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   3
ADI.............19  20  20  18  18  17  17  15  16  16  17
Haines index....2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2
Vrate kt-ft/1K..13  14  14  13  12  11  12  11  11  12  12
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR
Ceiling (kft)...4.5 4.5 4.5 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy. Chance of rain showers early in the
                    evening, then slight chance of rain showers
                    early in the evening.
CWR.................11 percent increasing to 22 percent until just
                    after midnight, then decreasing to 0 percent
                    early in the morning.
Min temperature.....Around 39.
Max humidity........89 percent.
Dewpoint............36.
Min apparent temp...38.
Surface winds (mph).East winds 5 to 7 mph in the evening becoming
                    light.
Wind (20 ft)........Northeast winds 5 to 7 mph shifting to the east
                    around 5 mph, then becoming light around
                    midnight.
Mixing height.......500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northeast 6 to 13 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (16400 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (3200 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.
LVORI...............5.
ADI.................8 to 17 decreasing to 3 to 5 around midnight.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
CEILING (KFT).......5.0 increasing to 6.0 early in the morning.

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........98  98  97  95  86  92  89  87  84  82  81  79
Weather cov.....CHC SCH SCH
Weather type....RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........
CWR.............10  10  20  20  20  20  20  20  0   0   0   0
Temp............45  44  44  43  42  42  42  41  41  41  40  40
Dewpoint........36  36  36  36  36  36  36  36  36  36  36  37
RH..............70  73  73  76  79  79  79  82  82  82  85  89
Heat index (F)..41  40  41  40  39  40  40  39  39  39  38  38
20 FT wind dir..E   E   E   E   E   E   E   NE  N   N   NE  NE
20 FT wind spd..7   7   6   5   5   3   3   3   3   3   3   3
20 FT wind gust.13  12  12  10  9   8   8   8   6   6   6   6
Surface wnd dir.E   E   E   E   E   E   E   NE  N   N   NE  NE
Surface wnd spd.7   7   6   5   5   3   3   3   3   3   3   3
Surface wnd gst.13  12  12  10  9   8   8   8   6   6   6   6
Mix hgt (kft)...1.3 1.4 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.1 0.9 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5
Transp wind dir.E   E   E   E   E   E   E   NE  N   NE  NE  NE
Transp wind spd.12  13  13  12  12  10  9   7   6   7   7   8
LVORI...........3   3   3   4   4   4   4   5   5   5   5   6
ADI.............17  8   8   8   8   5   4   3   3   3   3   4
Haines index....2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2
Vrate kt-ft/1K..13  15  16  14  14  12  9   5   3   4   3   4
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR
Ceiling (kft)...5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 6.0

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy.
CWR.................0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 58.
Min humidity........40 to 45 percent.
Dewpoint............36.
Min apparent temp...38.
Surface winds (mph).Light winds becoming southeast 5 to 9 mph in
                    the late morning and afternoon.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 5 to 9 mph early in the morning
                    becoming light, then becoming southeast 5 to 9
                    mph in the late morning and afternoon.
Mixing height.......3900 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....East 8 to 10 mph shifting to the southeast 12
                    to 16 mph in the late morning and afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (3900 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to good (54400 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
LVORI...............3.
ADI.................6 increasing to 54 to 59.
Haines Index........2 to 3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
CEILING (KFT).......6.0 increasing to 8.0.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........77     71     65     62     63     71
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0      0      0      0      0      0
Temp............40     43     48     54     57     57
Dewpoint........37     36     36     35     35     35
RH..............89     76     63     48     43     43
Heat index (F)..38     43     46     54     57     57
20 ft wind......NE 3   E 2    E 5    SE 7   SE 8   SE 9
20 ft wind gust.7      7      9      13     14     16
Surface wind....NE 3   E 2    E 5    SE 7   SE 8   SE 9
Surface wnd gst.7      7      9      13     14     16
Mix hgt (ft)....600    700    1800   2700   3400   3700
Transport wind..NE 8   E 8    SE 12  SE 13  SE 12  S 15
LVORI...........5      4      2      1      1      1
ADI.............6      6      26     38     39     54
Haines index....2      3      3      3      3      2
Vrate kt-ft/1K..4      5      18     30     34     48
Ventrate Cat....POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR   FAIR
Ceiling (kft)...6.0    6.0    7.0    8.0    8.0    8.0

$$
Forecaster...BL
Requested by...Alex Entrup
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2411300.0/BOX
.DELDT 04/18/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL alex.entrup@mass.gov
National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office
