Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
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752 FXUS64 KBRO 160839 AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Brownsville TX 339 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday) Issued at 335 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024 This portion of the total forecast continues to be active. First, a dryline will nudge into the western portion of the BRO CWFA this afternoon and evening. While well above normal daytime high temperatures are anticipated, felt NBM guidance was a few degrees too warm, especially when compared to recorded highs from Wednesday and additional model guidance. Thus, nudged NBM highs for today down a couple of degrees, and when apparent temperature algorithm was run, result is heat indices generally topped-out a smidge below established Heat Advisory criteria (> or = to 111 degrees), with very isolated pockets of heat indices at 111 degrees. Thus, will not issue a Heat Advisory for any portion of Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley for today, but will instead cover the heat with a Special Weather Statement. On a side note, Max Temperature and Apparent Temperature consistency with neighboring WFO CRP, as of this writing, looks good. Finally, after tranquility tonight, the continued presence of the dryline, the approach of a weak cold front, and a 500 mb shortwave will produce a 20 to 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms on Friday. The Storm Prediction Center places all of the BRO CWFA in a general risk of thunderstorms, but with a Marginal Risk knocking on the door as close as Baffin Bay, will have to remain vigilant and watch for any strong to severe thunderstorms that may sneak into the northern ranchlands, if not slightly farther south, for the end of the work week. Additionally, will also have to watch for the potential of a small-scale Heat Advisory, as heat indices in Cameron County do indeed meet or exceed established Advisory criteria for a couple of hours. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 335 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024 A very warm to hot pattern is expected to develop and persist through the long-term forecast period (Friday night through Thursday of next week). Global forecast models/ensembles continue to advertise a strong 591-591 dam sub- tropical heat dome developing over the region starting over the weekend and persisting through next week. With H850 temps expected to range between 22-26C, surface temperatures are expected to be above average with daytime highs ranging from the mid 90s to mid 100s, and overnight lows in the mid 70s to near 80F. Given the high humidity values, apparent "feel-like" temperatures are expected to be elevated. Heat indices are expected to range between 105-110F degrees over the weekend. Next week, there could be instances of heat indices locally between 111-115F degrees. That said, those without an effective cooling system and/or adequate hydration will likely experience heat related impacts, according to the NWS HeatRisk tool which is scoring widespread major to pockets of extreme heat related impacts over the weekend and especially during next week. Additionally, there is the chance the air quality will be poor as well due to the type of airmass that will be in place. With the strong sub-tropical heat dome in place over the region, subsidence will allow for dry and tranquil weather conditions to prevail. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1223 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024 MVFR to VFR will prevail at the aerodromes through the next 24 hours. Moderate to breezy winds and mostly cloudy skies are also anticipated. && .MARINE... Issued at 335 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024 Today through Friday....Buoy 42020 reported southeast winds around 16 knots gusting to around 21 knots with seas slightly under 5 feet with a period of 6 seconds at 150 CDT/650 UTC. Generally light to moderate winds and low to moderate seas will prevail along the Lower Texas Coast through the period with high pressure in control. However, the strength of the wind today may be just enough to require Small Craft Should Exercise Caution, mainly for the Laguna Madre and maybe the Gulf of Mexico waters from 0 to 20 nautical miles offshore. Friday night through Thursday...Light to moderate winds and seas are expected to persist through the long-term period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 93 80 96 79 / 10 10 20 10 HARLINGEN 96 77 97 76 / 10 10 20 10 MCALLEN 98 80 98 78 / 0 10 20 10 RIO GRANDE CITY 98 78 98 77 / 0 10 20 10 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 84 80 87 80 / 20 10 10 10 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 91 79 93 78 / 10 10 20 10 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...66-Tomaselli LONG TERM....23-Evbuoma AVIATION...66-Tomaselli