389
FXUS61 KBTV 051348
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
948 AM EDT Sun May 5 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Widespread rainfall will occur today though it will be light enough
to prevent a flooding threat. Temperatures will remain cool with
highs only in the upper 40s to mid 50s. High pressure will build
into the region for the start of the work week and bring dry and
mild weather. Rain showers will arrive for mid and late week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 946 AM EDT Sunday...The forecast is on track today with a
sharp trough and warm, moist air aloft overriding cool air here
at the ground. Precipitation has been moving through a bit
faster than the prior forecast and made some slight tweaks to
timing, but all else remains in excellent shape. Have a great
day!

Previous Discussion...Cloud cover is currently spreading across
the region from southwest to northeast out ahead of rain that
will arrive later tonight. The rain will overspread northern New
York in the next couple hours and it will overspread Vermont by
mid-morning. Temperatures have been slow to drop tonight,
particularly in the Champlain and St. Lawrence Valleys, due to
southerly flow and increasing cloud cover. Temperatures there
have been holding in the mid 50s to low 60s. Once the rain
arrives, evaporational cooling will help temperatures drop back
into the mid-50s. Cool moist southeast flow off the Atlantic is
keeping areas east of the Greens much cooler, with temperatures
there in the mid-40s.

Rain showers will prevail for much of the day. Despite the
relatively long-duration rain, rainfall rates will be light so
generally only between one and two thirds of an inch will fall.
Therefore, no river flooding is forecast. Some elevated instability
may develop over northern New York this afternoon where a few
heavier convective showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible.
Temperatures will not move very far during the day so highs should
generally be in the upper 40s to mid-50s. A southerly low-level jet
will pass over the region and it will cause some gustier winds and
channeled flow in the Champlain Valley. Gusts will reach between 15-
25 mph but gusts up to 30 mph are possible on Lake Champlain. The
steady rain will move out of the region later in the afternoon but
some showers will linger into the night. A following cold front will
move through later tonight and bring another round of more organized
showers, mostly to northern areas. Behind the front, moist northwest
flow will should cause some rain showers on Monday, particularly in
the upslope areas of the Greens. The rain showers will diminish in
the afternoon. There is not much of an airmass change behind the
front so despite northwest flow, some breaks in the clouds will
allow for efficient mixing and temperatures should generally rise
into the 60s and low 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 351 AM EDT Sunday...Dry weather will prevail through this
period as ridging builds over the region. Monday night will see
optimal raditional cooling under clearing skies and light winds.
Note that moisture profiles indicate patchy fog developing in the
favored valley locations, so have added that to the forecast. Lows
will generally be in the 40s, though some of the usual cold spots
could drop into the upper 30s. Tuesday will feature ample sunshine,
with any fog dissipating by mid morning. Fair weather cumulus will
develop during the afternoon, but shouldn`t be widespread enough to
block much sunshine. Highs will range from the mid 60s to the mid
70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 351 AM EDT Sunday...Precipitation chances will increase Tuesday
night into Wednesday as a low pressure system slides by just to our
south. This will be the first in a series of systems that will
affect our region through the latter half of the week as an upper
trough tries to become established across the eastern CONUS. The
timing of any upper troughs and how much phasing is able to occur
varies from model to model and run to run, so can`t definitively say
which one period might have the most shower activity or which might
trend drier. However, can say that there will be a gradual cooling
through the week, with Friday and Saturday only topping out in the
upper 40s to mid 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 12Z Monday...Ceilings have been lowering tonight and that
trend will continue into the morning as rain overspreads the
region. Ceilings at all terminals should fall to MVFR during the day
while ceilings at MPV may fall to IFR. Once the rain lightens up and
becomes more scattered tonight, ceilings will likely fall farther
and IFR conditions could develop at any terminal. The rain should
generally not be heavy enough to cause visibility concerns though
the heaviest showers could briefly lower visibilities to MVFR at any
terminal. Southerly winds will increase today and gusts between 15-
20 KTs are possible with locally higher gusts likely. LLWS will
develop this morning and it should be persist for much of the day
before lowering this evening. Winds will gradually drop tonight and
gusts should generally be below 10 KTs by tomorrow morning.

Outlook...

Monday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.
Monday Night: VFR. Patchy BR.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Definite SHRA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Slight
chance SHRA.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Likely SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Myskowski
NEAR TERM...Haynes/Myskowski
SHORT TERM...Hastings
LONG TERM...Hastings
AVIATION...Myskowski