698
FXUS61 KBUF 092205
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
605 PM EDT Thu May 9 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A wavy, and nearly stationary frontal boundary to our south will
lead to thickening clouds over our region with some rain tonight
into Friday night. The most persistent chances for wet weather will
be across the Southern Tier and Finger Lakes region, where a half to
one inch of rain could fall through the end of the work week. Cool
and unsettled weather will generally remain in place for much of the
upcoming weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
It will become unsettled tonight, as surface waves moving along
a pseudo-stationary frontal boundary stretching from the Ohio
Valley to the Mid Atlantic region will help moisture to surge
northwards across much of the area. Relatively deep lift to the
north of the passing waves will encourage showers and areas of
steadier rain to impact the region, MAINLY over the Southern
Tier and Finger Lakes. Areas that could make it through the
night rainfree will be across the Niagara Frontier and the North
Country. Lows tonight will range through the 40s.

The area of steadier, more widespread rain will expand across the
region during the day Friday when additional shortwave energy will
support deeper organization to the last in the series of surface
waves along the aforementioned front. PoPs have thus further been
raised across all of the forecast area, now ranging from Chc across
Niagara County to Lkly MOST elsewhere, and to near 100% across parts
of the Southern Tier and Finger Lakes region. Cool north to
northeasterly low level flow will keep temperatures below average
with much of the area topping in the 50s for afternoon highs.

A weak shortwave ridge will scoot across the forecast area Friday
night, accompanied by significant mid level drying. This will allow
the showers and areas of steadier rain to taper off from west to
east, although some spotty showers should persist from the Genesee
Valley eastward. Lows Friday night again ranging mainly through the
40s, however some upper 30s will be possible across the interior
Southern Tier.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Mid-level troughing will dive across the eastern Great Lakes and
Northeast and remain in place through much of the weekend.
Initially, this will support an area of weak low pressure to track
southwest across the region. Both synoptic moisture along with the
upper level trough providing lift will support low chances for a few
showers Saturday morning, especially across WNY. Then with diurnal
heating and the potential of some clearing will support a few
thunderstorms Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening. Coverage in
showers will then decrease from west to east Saturday night.

An amplified upper level ridge across the northern Great Lakes will
act to gradually push the existing trough and its axis east across
the area Sunday. Overall this will support more showers across the
area Sunday.  Additionally Sunday afternoon, a few thunderstorms
will be possible across the Finger Lakes and eastern Lake Ontario
region.

Temperatures this weekend will be a few degrees below average with
highs in the upper 50s and low 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A damp start to the period as potential showers cover most of the
area from the GOMEX all the way through the Great Lakes and to
Hudson Bay. Showers will be along an elongated frontal boundary with
waves of low pressure and troughs in place along the boundary.
Currently the best potential for showers looks like the Monday
through Tuesday time period as the above mentioned features pass
over/near the region.

Guidance is still very much uncertain from Tuesday night onward as
some models keep a stalled frontal boundary over the area, while
others are much more progressive with pushing the front and trough
through. Went with the middle ground and left some shower potential
in for Wednesday & Wednesday night, mainly over the southern half of
the forecast area.

Thursday looks like the driest day as of right now, with a potential
ridge axis centering over the region ahead of an incoming trough
that will have the potential to bring more showers for the end of
the week.

Temperatures for the period will be within a few degrees of normal,
with Thursday being the warmest day as a potential ridge moves into
the region.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions will be in place through most of tonight, although
some light rain will advance across the Southern Tier and Finger
Lakes region with CIGS lowering to MVFR levels towards daybreak.

On Friday, areas of rain and MVFR CIGS will expand across all of
western New York with pockets of IFR conditions across the higher
terrain of the Southern Tier and Finger Lakes region. Mainly VFR
conditions will persist east of lake Ontario, although low VFR CIGS
(3-5kft) will be possible toward KART from late Friday morning
on.


Outlook...

Friday night...MVFR conditons with rain ending from west to east.
Saturday...VFR CIGS deteriorating to MVFR with increasing likelihood
for showers.
Sunday...VFR to MVFR CIGS in scattered showers.
Monday and Tuesday...VFR/MVFR. A chance of showers.

&&

.MARINE...
Gentle to moderate north to northeasterly breezes will continue on
the Lakes, maintaining some light, to at times moderate chop tonight
through Friday with no Small Craft conditions forecast.

Mainly light, variable winds (less than 10 knots) will then be the
rule from Friday night through much of Sunday, before a more
pronounced southwesterly flow (10-15 knots) develops ahead of a warm
front approaching from the west toward the tail end of the weekend.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JM/RSH
NEAR TERM...JM/RSH
SHORT TERM...EAJ
LONG TERM...SW
AVIATION...JM/RSH
MARINE...JM