Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 161039
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
639 AM EDT Sat Mar 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure nosing across our area from the Ohio valley will
provide us with fair dry weather to start the weekend...but a cold
front will then plow through tonight while producing widespread
showers. Saint Patrick`s Day will be chillier with a brisk wind and
persistent clouds that could yield a few nuisance rain or snow
showers. Looking further ahead...below normal temperatures and lake
effect snow showers can then be anticipated for at least the first
half of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
While high pressure extending into our area from the Ohio valley
will provide us with fair dry weather today...clouds will be
stubborn to clear out for some areas. This will mainly be the case
near and east of Lake Ontario...as stubborn low clouds this morning
may only partially clear out during the midday before the next round
of cloud cover arrives ahead of an approaching cold front.

Otherwise...a 45 to 50kt low level jet will ease into our region
this afternoon to promote both breezy sfc conditions while also
supporting a well mixed environment that should lead to temperatures
in the low to mid 50s over the western counties. Slightly cooler
weather will be found east of Lake Ontario.

A cold front will then plow through the region tonight. While broad
lift will be supplied by the proximity of the left front exit region
of a 130kt H25 jet...strong low level convergence in association
with the aforementioned front will guarantee to provide enough
forcing for widespread showers...the bulk of which will be in the
form of rain. As we move through the overnight...deepening cold air
in the wake of the front will change some of the pcpn over to a
little wet snow. This will mainly be across the higher terrain where
very minor accumulations will be possible on grassy and elevated
surfaces.

Unfortunately for St Patrick`s Day...continued weak cold advection
within a fairly strong westerly flow will result in a notably
chiller day. Temperatures will struggle to recover to 40 across the
higher terrain...while most of the rest of the area will experience
afternoon readings in the low to mid 40s. Consistent wind gusts of
30-35 mph in the afternoon will keep wind chill values fairly close
to freezing. Otherwise...there will be a wealth of clouds within a
cold cyclonic flow along with a few rain or wet snow showers. The
most widespread of these mixed pcpn showers will be found within a
low level convergence zone that will extend west to east from IAG
and ROC to southern Oswego county. This subtle feature is not
something that will be found in any ensemble package...but rather
the higher resolution deterministic models.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A secondary shortwave pivoting across the upper Great Lakes Sunday
night will bring a re-enforcing shot of colder air to the region on
Monday, and then continue into Monday night. Ahead of this
feature...a lack of deep synoptic moisture and marginal H850T`s
(-8C/-10C) will limit lake effect shower potential for much of the
Sunday night through Monday morning. Activity then surges Monday
afternoon-evening as a cold front delivers that re-enforcing shot of
colder air and the added synoptic moisture. With CAA picking up and
the added moisture we should see an overall increase in snow shower
activity across the board in the afternoon. Given the strong diurnal
effects from a mid-March sun we most likely will see some graupel
with the heavier snow showers. BUFKIT profiles support this idea
with low-level lapse rates of 8-9 C/km. It will also be blustery
Monday, with west-northwest winds gusting up to 30-40 mph at times
during the daytime. Highs Monday will mainly be in the 30s.

Monday night...as the sun sets and then we progress into the night
some measure of organized lake effect snows will most likely
materialize east and southeast of the lakes. There is also some hint
that upstream connections will come into play giving an added boost.
However...residence time may be an issue as these bands appear
`likely` to be moving around a bit. Given that...snowfall amounts
right now are on the lighter side with this update. On the order of
1-3 inches over any given spot. A cold night expected with lows
found in the 20s by Tuesday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A wintry `feel` to the air as we open the period with an amplified
pattern (western ridge/eastern trough) in place across the CONUS.
This deep upper level trough over the Great Lakes and Northeast will
lift out heading into mid week, although a broad northwesterly flow
regime will remain in place through around Thursday. A trend toward
a more quasi-zonal flow across the CONUS sets up toward the end of
the period allowing temperatures to increase back toward average to
close out the work week.

Main upper level trough axis will be east of the area by Tuesday
with drier air and subsidence associated with high pressure trying
to briefly build in across the region, however latest model trends
have sped up the next weak wave moving toward the area from the
northwest along the back side of the main upper level trough. This
will keep the threat for at least scattered snow showers (including
lake enhanced/upslope) going through Tuesday...and Wednesday as yet
another fast-moving wave in the pipeline is set to move over or near
our region from the upper Great Lakes in the mid week timeframe.
There are some model discrepancies on exact timing and strength of
these systems, so confidence on just how these features will impact
our region remains moderate at best. However, it is a good bet that
cold northwesterly flow regime will keep our temperatures below
normal with most precipitation falling in the form of snow through
mid week. Main storm track tries to lift north of our area Thursday,
with a possible break in the weather as high pressure tries to build
across the region from the west.

Low confidence forecast toward the end of the work week with
significant model discrepancies...ranging anywhere from strong
Canadian high pressure ridged across the lower Great Lakes to an
area of strong low pressure moving directly over the region. Stay
tuned.

As hinted at above, temperatures some 10 degrees below average to
start the period will trend close to average toward the end of the
work week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MVFR cigs this morning over the western counties will gradually
improve to VFR levels...mainly during the midday hours. Otherwise
high pressure nosing into the region from the Ohio valley will
provide fair dry weather through late afternoon.

Conditions will deteriorate tonight though...as the passage of a
rather strong cold front will lead to cigs that will lower to MVFR
to IFR levels while yielding widespread showers.

Outlook...

Sunday...VFR/MVFR in scattered rain and snow showers.
Monday and Tuesday...MVFR/VFR with lake effect snow showers
southeast of the lakes.
Wednesday...Mainly VFR. Widely scattered rain or snow showers.
Thursday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Moderate southwesterlies today will back to the south late in the
day and this evening...as a cold front will approach the region.
While conditions should remain below small craft advisory levels in
most areas...it is not out of the question that winds increase to
SCA criteria for a short time this afternoon for the BUF Harbor.

In the wake of the cold front...winds will become westerly and
freshen during the course of the overnight. Conditions will likely
become choppy on Lake Erie and on the eastern half of Lake Ontario
in the process.

Fresh to strong westerlies can be anticipated on Sunday...with gusts
approaching gale force on the east end of Lake Ontario. Small craft
advisories can be expected to be issued in a later forecast package
for this period.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...AR/JM
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...RSH


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