Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 140032
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
832 PM EDT Wed Mar 13 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Quiet weather will persist this evening and through tonight as a
weak frontal boundary settles just south of the NY/PA border. A low
pressure system will track along this front on Thursday, bringing
increased chances for rain showers by Thursday night and into
Friday. Dry weather briefly returns Saturday as high pressure passes
south of the region before an unsettled and much colder pattern
returns early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Satellite imagery and sfc observations this evening depict a
stationary frontal boundary south of the region from
northwestern PA to central NY. Lack of moisture and a building
ridge will maintain dry weather across the region with low
temperatures in the upper 30s to low 40s tonight. A shortwave
trough will break away from a cut- off low over the four corners
area tonight. Surface low pressure over the southern Plains
will move northeast and along the nearby stationary front by
Thursday night.

Initially, dry and calm weather will continue into Thursday as the
stationary front moves north into western NY. A surge of warmer air
will move into the region, however high pressure to the north will
hold the warmer air aloft north of the boundary. We will likely see
a large spread in temperatures across the region Thursday with highs
reaching the upper 60s to low 70s across the western Southern Tier
to the low 50s across the Saint Lawrence Valley to the southern
shore of Lake Ontario. Surface low pressure will reach Lake Erie by
Thursday evening with increasing mid-level convergence and strong
warm air advection across the region. PWATS increase to an inch
across the region and rain showers will enter western NY as early as
3PM Thursday. Rain showers will become widespread by Thursday
evening with periods of moderate showers along and north of the
frontal boundary Thursday night. There is a slight chance for
thunderstorms across southwest NY, mainly the western Southern Tier
Thursday night. This region is on the fringe of weak elevated
instability with better conditions for thunderstorms across the Ohio
Valley. Forecast rainfall amounts will average 0.25-0.50 inches with
less than 0.25 inches across the Finger Lakes region. Higher amounts
are possible in thunderstorms.

Owed to the track of the surface low over the forecast area, low
temperatures Thursday night will range from the upper 30s across
portions of the North Country to near 50 close to the NY/PA border.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Zonal flow aloft Friday will give way to a subtle shortwave Friday
night before the next quick paced shortwave dives southeast across
the Great Lakes Saturday. Meanwhile down at the surface, a surface
low and trailing cold front will be in the midst of exiting east
into New England Friday morning, which will support the lingering
rain showers to exit from west to east.

Brief upper level ridging Friday night through Saturday ahead of the
next fast moving shortwave trough, will support a surface ridge to
slide across New York State and result in a period of dry weather
late Friday night through Saturday.

Temperatures to close out the week and start of the weekend will be
cooler than earlier in the week, though remain slightly above
normal. Highs Friday and Saturday will range in the upper 40s to low
50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A significant pattern shift to much more winter-like conditions will
take place during this period as a deep upper level trough becomes
established across the eastern third of the CONUS.

As we open the period, a vigorous Clipper system will be diving east-
southeast through northwestern Ontario, then slows down as it turns
more easterly while moving south of James Bay, eventually locating
itself over south-central Quebec by late Sunday. An initial cold
front trailing the system will push east across the area Saturday
night bringing a round of mainly rain showers to the region, with
some wet snow flakes possibly mixing in across the higher terrain
depending on how fast the colder air moves in. Wraparound moisture
will linger through the day Sunday with precipitation mainly in the
form of plain rain showers across the area, most numerous across
upslope areas. Some wet flakes will continue to be possible across
higher terrain, although near-surface temps will be marginal even
over the higher elevations. Daytime highs Sunday will be mainly 40s,
with some upper 30s across the higher terrain.

Synoptic moisture remains in place Sunday night as airmass off
the deck continues to slowly cool, with 850Ts getting down
around -8C to -10C late. This will allow for scattered lake
enhanced and eventually westerly flow lake effect snow showers
to develop east of the Lakes. A secondary cold front will move
across the area on Monday bringing the likelihood for a period
widespread snow showers for most areas. Winds veer WNW/NW behind
the boundary with widespread snow shower activity tapering off
to more upslope/lake effect dominant for Monday night into
Tuesday as 850Ts bottom out around -12C. Some accumulating
upslope/lake effect snows will be possible during this
timeframe, although mid March sun angle will at least somewhat
disrupt lake effect and hinder accumulations during the daylight
hours. Ground temps will take a bit to cool down as well.
Temperatures will be running some 5-10 degrees below average (15
deg below in some cases), with daytime highs possibly not
reaching the freezing mark across the higher terrain Monday and
Tuesday.

High pressure will then try to ridge in across the area toward mid
week. Drier air and subsidence associated with this feature will
help taper off the more persistent lake effect/upslope snows,
however it will remain cold enough aloft that a few lingering lake
effect snow showers will remain possible, especially downwind of the
Lake Ontario. Daytime highs will remain below average through
Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Mainly VFR through this evening and tonight as a weak frontal
boundary stalls south of the NY/PA border. Plenty of dry air in
place will prevent the development of any showers across the
forecast area, though patchy VFR high clouds will likely filter in
throughout the night.

A low pressure system will approach from the west Thursday and begin
tracking along the stationary frontal boundary. VFR conditions
continue through the morning hours though mid/high cloud cover will
thicken across western NY. Widespread rain will eventually move into
the region from the west after about 21z, though a few scattered
showers across western NY and the North Country may preclude this by
a few hours. Cigs are expected to quickly deteriorate to MVFR with
the arrival of the broad swath of rain, though IFR or lower cigs
are expected to hold off until after 00z.

While surface winds are not expected to be strong with this system,
its exact track across the region will have a large impact on the
amount of LLWS present across western NY Thursday afternoon and
evening. Confidence remains low in whether or not any of this more
significant shear occurs over the TAF sites, though latest guidance
suggests it should remain south of KROC/KBUF and east of KJHW.

Outlook...

Thursday night...MVFR/IFR with showers likely and a slight chance of
a thunderstorm across southern New York.
Friday...MVFR/VFR with a chance of showers.
Saturday...Mainly VFR.
Sunday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of showers.
Monday...MVFR/IFR possible with snow showers.

&&

.MARINE...
A stationary front will remain south of New York State through
tonight with winds gradually subsiding in its wake. A small chop on
the eastern shorelines is possible through early tonight though
otherwise minimal wave action is expected through Thursday morning.

The stationary front will move north and stall near Lake Erie and
Lake Ontario Thursday. Low pressure will track along the front
bringing widespread rain and an increase in winds on the waters.
There is a chance small craft advisory levels may be reached
Thursday night.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AR/HSK/PP
NEAR TERM...HSK/PP
SHORT TERM...EAJ
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...PP
MARINE...HSK/PP


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