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000
FXUS65 KBYZ 280825
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
225 AM MDT Sun Apr 28 2024

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Monday...

Satellite imagery shows a dynamic low in the central plains and a
zonal flow moving thru the PacNW and northern Rockies. There are a
couple of embedded weak shortwaves. The first is helping to
produce scattered light showers over western areas currently, and
is also associated with a shift to westerly winds. The other wave
moving from WA/OR into ID will provide very modest ascent for
shower activity later today. As surface winds turn to the NW over
the next several hours, focus of showers from late morning til
evening will evolve to our southern upslope areas. None of this
precip will be heavy, and diurnal instability is too marginal for
a mention of thunderstorms today. Mountains will pick up a little
snow, on the order of a half inch to 2 inches. The probability of
exceeding 2" over the next 24 hours is only 30% over the
Beartooths. Temps today will again be seasonable with highs in the
upper 50s to mid 60s.

Before moving to Monday, we should point out there is advection of
stratus approaching far southeast MT from western SD. Look for a
fog/stratus combo in Carter County over the coming hours, and
boundary layer moisture may even be deep enough to produce pockets
of upslope drizzle over the hills. Something to watch if you`re
traveling in the Alzada and Ekalaka areas thru maybe 15z this
morning.

Downslope/pre-frontal warming will exist on Monday ahead of a
stronger Pacific shortwave, and SW winds will become breezy (gusts
30-40 mph expected along western foothills). High temps should
range from 60-70F, warmest over central and east parts. A few
showers may spread over our western mountains/foothills in the
morning, but the much better chances of showers (50-90%) will be
in the afternoon as large scale ascent increases from the west.
Dew points in the low-mid 30s will limit instability but sbcapes
should reach 100-300 j/kg, so we may see a few weak thunderstorms
near the cold front, which isn`t expected to reach our west until
close to 00z. The cold front/convection combo has the potential to
produce gusty winds (up to 45 mph) by late in the day, starting
in our west of course. Something to watch if you have outdoor
plans late Monday afternoon & evening.

JKL

Monday evening through Saturday...

An unsettled pattern with several shortwaves and troughing is
in store for much of the week. Chances for precipitation are
ubiquitous, the highest chances will be see on Monday as a cold
front moves through Montana. The best chances for precipitation
through Tuesday will be west of a Miles City to Sheridan line.
Locations west of this line have a 50-80% chance of at least 0.1"
of QPF in this period. The western mountains will have the highest
precip probabilities through the extended forecast, with a few
inches of snowfall expected. While precipitation for lower
elevations will be mostly rain, snow levels are going to drop to
around 3000ft Monday night bringing chances for some light snow
accumulations. Locations such as Red Lodge have up to a 15% of an
inch of snow, while the mountains will have a 50-80% chance of at
least 2 inches.

Models depict another wave pushing across the region Wednesday
night, with some slightly increased moisture chances, 20-50% for
lower elevations and 50-70% in the mountains. For the rest of the
week, PoPs of 20-40% are in the forecast. From Monday night
through Thursday night, the mountains have a 40-70% chance of
picking up 6 inches of snow.

With the passing cold front, breezy winds of 20-40 mph will be
felt across the area through Tuesday. The highest gusts in the
30s-40s mph will be in the far east, along the Dakota borders.

Highs in the 50s to low 60s through Friday, before potential 70s
on Saturday.

Matos

&&

.AVIATION...

Scattered light showers will impact areas west of KMLS-K00F today
and tonight. VFR will be dominant, but local MVFR is possible
especially near the foothills. Mountains will be frequently
obscured in snow showers. There is also a moderate risk (50%
chance) of fog/stratus in far southeast MT (KBHK-K97M) thru 15z
this morning. Local MVFR-IFR is expected in this area. JKL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Tdy Mon     Tue     Wed     Thu     Fri     Sat
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 063 043/067 038/056 036/056 036/057 037/059 037/064
    2/W 25/T    72/W    24/W    35/W    24/W    32/W
LVM 059 039/061 029/049 028/049 030/054 033/055 034/061
    5/W 29/T    84/J    35/W    34/W    25/T    32/W
HDN 066 039/070 037/059 034/058 035/057 035/062 037/065
    2/W 23/W    92/W    24/W    45/W    24/W    32/W
MLS 065 039/068 040/057 036/056 036/055 036/060 038/061
    1/B 01/B    81/N    13/W    23/W    23/W    32/W
4BQ 064 038/068 040/057 035/058 036/053 035/059 037/061
    1/B 01/B    41/N    12/W    34/W    23/W    32/W
BHK 058 033/068 037/057 033/056 033/053 032/057 034/058
    0/B 00/U    61/N    13/W    24/W    23/W    32/W
SHR 062 037/068 034/057 029/056 031/052 030/057 033/061
    3/W 22/W    82/W    23/W    55/W    34/W    42/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
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