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000
FXUS65 KBYZ 141432
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Billings MT
832 AM MDT Sun Apr 14 2024

.UPDATE...
Some weak jet dynamics were producing a line of weak showers over
far southeast Montana this morning. Added these for the morning
hours with returns of 25-30dbz present. Will be short lived as,
should exit by around 11 am. Otherwise, expect a warm day with
record or near record highs advertised below. TWH

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Monday night...

Another warm day is in store as an upper ridge overhead slowly
shifts into eastern MT. An upper low will move inland through
California and into Nevada putting western and central areas under
an area of diffluence. Isolated to widely scattered showers (30%
or less chance) are expected to develop over western areas this
afternoon, lifting north into the evening. The best potential for
lightning looks to remain north of the area at this time. High
temperatures are expected to reach the upper 70s to lower 80s
today, and daily records will be challenged at each of our
climate stations.

SITE        SUN FCST   SUN RECORD
Billings       79       80 (2015)
Livingston     79       79 (1985)
Miles City     83       84 (2015)
Sheridan       82       82 (1963)
Baker          81       80 (2015)

The upper low will continue to move eastward through the Great
Basin and into Colorado by Monday afternoon, with an associated
surface trough moving into southeast MT. Southeast flow ahead of
the low will transport moisture into the region during the day
Monday, with PWATs approaching 0.8 to 0.9 inches over southeast MT.
Showers and thunderstorms look to develop over western and
central areas during the late morning and afternoon hours (40-80%
chance), with eastern areas getting in on the action during the
late afternoon and evening (40-80% chance). Marginal instability
and shear (CAPE values of 400-600 J/kg and deep layer shear of
20-35 kts) will promote at least some small hail and gusty winds,
with the best instability found over the southeast, where a few
stronger storms are possible. Storms will also be capable of
producing heavy rain, with the best potential again over
southeast MT. Local ponding of water is possible. Showers and
thunderstorms look to linger over the east into Tuesday morning.
With regards to precipitation totals Monday into Tuesday morning,
latest probabilities of 0.25 inches or more range from around
30-60% over the mountains and foothills, to 40-75% over southeast
MT. Probabilities of 0.50 inches or more for the same period
range from 15-30% over the mountains and foothills to 25-50% over
southeast MT. Given the convective nature of the precipitation,
local totals in excess of an inch are not out of the question over
southeast MT. Snow levels are expected to be high, generally
above 9,000 feet during the day Monday, dropping below 6,000 feet
by Tuesday morning as cooler air works into the region. A few
inches of snow are possible on the highest peaks. High
temperatures will range from the 60s over the west to the 70s over
the east on Monday. STP

Tuesday through Sunday...

The uncertainty that has plagued the long term forecast over the
past few days has decreased over the last 24 hours. Global
ensemble forecasts (GFS/ECMWF) have come into better agreement on
the overall pattern with a low pressure trough dropping into our
region Tuesday evening, likely sticking around through Friday.
This trough will bring precipitation to portions of the area
Tuesday evening through at least Wednesday and cooler temperatures
to the whole area Tuesday night through Friday. With this, it
looks like the best precipitation over our area will be focused
along and south/west of I-90 from Livingston through Sheridan and
over/around the Crazy Mountains (60-95% chance for precipitation).
Over the mountains, all snow is expected, but rain transitioning
to snow can be expected over the foothills and lower elevations
Tuesday evening into Wendesday morning. Therefore, the highest
snow totals are expected over the mountains and foothills. At this
time, Red Lodge has a 50% chance to see 6 or more inches of snow,
and Story has a 70% chance, Tuesday night through Wednesday. In
the mountains, there is a 50-75% chance for 10 or more inches of
snow over the highest peaks as well. Snowfall probabilities drop
quickly as you move off the immediate foothills.

Looks at temperatures, the push of colder air is expected to move
in late Tuesday into Wednesday with the precipitation. At this
time, high temperatures Wednesday through Friday are forecast to
be below normal in the 30s and 40s (degF). Along with the cooler
temperatures, breezy conditions will prevail Tuesday through
Thursday with 20 to 40 mph wind gusts common. The strongest gusts
are expected in eastern MT and northern WY during this time.

By next weekend, warmer temperatures back into the 50s and 60s
along with drier conditions are forecast as weak ridging builds
back in.

While uncertainty has decreased with this forecast, we do
expected specific details to continue to change as we get closer
to the event. Therefore, it is important to continue to monitor
the forecast, especially if you have outdoor or travel plans this
week. Arends

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail across the area today. During the
afternoon and evening, isolated showers are possible west of KBIL,
potentially impacting KLVM (30% or less chance). Arends

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Tdy Mon     Tue     Wed     Thu     Fri     Sat
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 079 048/072 046/061 035/045 028/045 026/046 026/052
    0/U 25/T    31/N    65/S    12/S    11/B    11/U
LVM 079 046/064 038/057 030/041 022/041 021/044 023/051
    2/W 26/T    23/R    75/S    22/S    11/B    11/B
HDN 081 045/074 047/064 034/047 026/047 024/047 025/056
    0/U 14/W    41/B    55/O    12/S    11/B    11/U
MLS 083 046/073 049/061 035/044 027/042 024/042 024/050
    0/U 02/W    42/R    12/S    11/N    00/B    00/U
4BQ 083 047/074 047/060 034/045 027/043 024/043 025/050
    0/U 02/T    52/R    13/O    11/N    01/B    01/U
BHK 081 044/072 043/058 031/043 024/039 021/039 021/047
    1/U 12/W    64/R    01/N    11/N    01/B    00/B
SHR 082 044/069 044/060 031/041 022/041 021/043 020/051
    0/U 04/T    52/R    77/S    32/S    12/S    11/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
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