778
FXUS61 KCAR 061321
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
921 AM EDT Mon May 6 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm occluded front will finish crossing the region late this
morning. A secondary cold front will approach the area late
this afternoon and cross the region this evening. High pressure
will then build over the area from the northwest later tonight
into Tuesday. Low pressure systems will slide south of the area
Wednesday and again on Thursday. A new low may develop to our
south on Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
920AM Update...No major changes to the forecast for this
update.

Prev Disc: Fast chgs in wx conditions is on tap for the Rgn
tdy. Patchy fog/dz and most shwr activity ovr our FA will move E
by late this Morn as a weak warm occlusion moves E of the FA to
ovr the Can Maritimes. After a pd of ptly sunny skies, the tmg
of a of a fairly strong secondary cold front and associated s/wv
from Hudson Bay now appears to be back around 00z this Eve ovr
Nrn ptns of the FA just after max diurnal htg, so additional sct
shwrs and possible isold tstms are again possible late this
aftn into very early Eve msly across far Nrn areas. The warmest
air in the llvls ahead of the secondary cold front will arrive
durg the Aftn allowing temps to reach highs well into the 60s,
perhaps even near 70 ovr inland low trrn lctns.

Any remaining isold shwrs will move E of the by mid Mon Eve,
with the rest of Mon Ngt looking to be fair, breezy and cooler
behind a secondary cold front.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Low pressure, both surface and aloft, will be situated to our north
on Tuesday while high pressure centered over Hudson Bay will ridge
southeast across our area. A bit of moisture and mid level
instability will bring a partly cloudy sky on Tuesday across the
north with a cumulus field. Southern areas will be mostly sunny.
Southern areas will continue to be warm on Tuesday with inland highs
in the upper 60s. The north will cool down just a bit, but continue
to be seasonably mild with highs in the low 60s. The cumulus will
dissipate Tuesday evening giving way to a mostly clear night Tuesday
night as weak surface high pressure crests over the area.

A shallow and weak low will approach from the Eastern Great Lakes on
Wednesday and may spread some light rain across southern areas
Wednesday afternoon. A weak corridor of high pressure and some
blocking will likely keep the north dry with a partly to mostly
cloudy sky. Inland highs on Wednesday will be near 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A bit of light rain or showers may linger over southern areas
Wednesday night. Another week low will approach on Thursday along a
flat east to west flow. This may spread some more rain into southern
parts of the area late Thursday into Thursday night while weak high
pressure and blocking keep the north dry. Some light rain across the
south and dry weather over the north may continue into Friday.

Our focus later Friday into the start of the weekend will be on an
amplifying trough diving through the Ohio Valley and developing a
new low off the Mid-Atlantic coast. The low will track northeast
from the Mid-Atlantic coast likely bringing some rain to southern
and possibly bringing some rain to the north. The GFS has been
showing a strong trough diving into the Plains on Saturday which
acts to pivot the Mid-Atlantic low north bringing a soaking rain to
the entire area. The ECMWF, however, has the Plains trough fractured
leaving a piece up in northern Canada with a weaker trough diving
into the Plains. Without a strong Plains trough to pivot the Mid-
Atlantic low north, the ECMWF slides the Mid-Atlantic low south and
out to sea only brushing southern areas with a chance for some light
rain. An upper trough remaining over the area may keep our weather
unsettled Sunday into early next week with chances for showers.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: This Morn...all TAF sites IFR clgs in isold-sct
shwrs, patchy dz, and fog erly this Morn, becmg MVFR clgs late
this Morn.

This Aftn...low VFR to VFR clgs. Brief MVFR vsbys possible in
shwrs late KFVE-KPQI. Lgt to mdt SW winds becmg NW late in the
day.

Tngt - all TAF sites VFR. Lgt NW winds.

SHORT TERM: Tuesday...VFR. Light NW wind.

Tuesday night...VFR. Light NW wind becoming light and variable.

Wednesday...VFR north. VFR becoming MVFR south. Light NE wind.

Wednesday night...MVFR to IFR south. VFR north. Light NE wind.

Thursday...VFR north. MVFR south. Light E wind.

Thursday night...VFR. Light NE wind.

Friday...VFR. Light E wind.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: No hdlns anticipated at this tm ovr this ptn of the
fcst. Patchy fog should end by Aftn. Kept close to blended wv
model guidance for fcst wv hts with wvs msly composed of two
spectral groups; a shorter 3 to 6 sec and a longer 10 to 12 sec
pd swell.

SHORT TERM: Wind and seas are expected to remain below SCA
through the week. Some humid air over the waters may produce
some patchy fog or light mist Tuesday into Tuesday night.
Otherwise, visibility should be good.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...LaFlash/VJN
Short Term...Bloomer
Long Term...Bloomer
Aviation...LaFlash/VJN/Bloomer
Marine...LaFlash/VJN/Bloomer