Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
000
FXUS64 KCRP 270805
AFDCRP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
305 AM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 220 AM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024
Water vapor imagery this morning reveals a mid to upper level
trough swinging across the state. At the surface, east-
northeasterly winds remain in place as high pressure lingers to
our northeast. Forecast soundings continue to show a moistening of
the mid levels between H7-H5 through the day. At the same time, an
swath of H5 vorticity will be tugged through the region. This
should be enough support to squeeze out some isolated showers
across our northern counties. With that said, the lower levels
will be rather dry so we may just end up with virga. All that just
to say we continued with a low chance of showers today with most
staying dry.
Looking at tonight, onshore flow will begin to return as high
pressure moves east. This will allow for the gradual return of low
level moisture. There are some signs that patchy fog may develop,
however moisture return does not look sufficient enough at this
time so have left out of the forecast. Clear skies tonight will
allow for temps to fall into the upper 40s to mid 50s.
Upper level ridging builds in by on Thursday as onshore flow
continues at the surface. Increasing subsidence and onshore flow
will allow for temps to climb back into the mid 70s along the
coast to the mid 80s across the Brush Country.
Lastly, will allow the High Risk of Rip Currents to expire at 12Z
this morning. However, will run with a moderate risk through
Thursday as swells remain around 9s at Buoy 19.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 220 AM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024
The long term opens up with a weak upper ridge across the
Southern Plains. At the surface, onshore flow will continue as
high pressure settles in across the Northern Gulf Coast. Winds
will strengthen at times Friday and Saturday as the pressure
gradient tightens in response to a deepening low across the
Plains. By early Monday, a stout upper trough will dig towards the
Baja coast and begin to elongate and eject across Northern Mexico
on Tuesday. This system will send a front our way some time on
Tuesday. Rain chances will return to the forecast as this
boundary moves through the region.
We will see quite the warming trend kick in as we head into the
weekend. High temps will soar into the triple digits across the
Brush Country by Monday. It feels way too early to be writing this
but WPC currently has a medium chance of heat indices over 100
and a low chance of heat indices over 105 Sunday/Monday.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1048 PM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024
Predominate VFR conditions are expected during the TAF period.
Patchy light rain, brief isolated showers, and/or virga
anticipated over portions of the northern Brush Country/Rio Grande
Plains Wednesday morning, which may affect the COT terminal.
Generally weak to moderate onshore flow by early tonight,
light/variable wind overnight, followed by a transition to weak to
moderate north/northeast flow Wednesday morning, then finally
light/variable wind from late afternoon to the end of the TAF
period.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 220 AM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024
A weak to moderate east to northeasterly will continue through
middle of the week. Onshore flow looks to return on Thursday and
continue as we head into the weekend. Onshore flow will strengthen
on Friday and Saturday in response to a low pressure system over
the Plains. Therefore, Small Craft Advisory conditions are
likely, generally over the southern and offshore waters at times.
A more moderate flow will return on Sunday before restrengthening
again on Monday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi 76 52 81 62 / 10 0 0 0
Victoria 72 48 78 56 / 20 0 0 0
Laredo 79 54 86 61 / 20 0 0 0
Alice 76 50 83 58 / 10 0 0 0
Rockport 73 60 76 65 / 20 0 0 0
Cotulla 78 50 86 58 / 20 0 0 0
Kingsville 75 51 81 60 / 10 0 0 0
Navy Corpus 74 60 76 66 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk until 7 AM CDT this morning for TXZ345-442-
443-447.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TC/95
LONG TERM....TC/95
AVIATION...WC