Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
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873 FXUS64 KCRP 131132 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 632 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 244 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Key Messages: Slight to Enhanced Risk of Severe Thunderstorms for most of South Texas this afternoon Water vapor imagery this morning reveals a shortwave lifting across the southeast US while an upper level low moves across OK/NE. At the surface, a moist onshore flow continues across the region as a warm front remains parked across our northern CWA border. As the upper low lifts across the Plains, a shortwave moving through the southwesterly flow aloft will tug a ribbon of H5 vorticity through the southern part of the state. Meanwhile, instability will be on the rise as diurnal heating kicks in. The main issue today will be just how warm we get. The combination of a thick stratus deck and smoke may keep our temps down a couple of degrees which would decrease our convective potential slightly. However, model soundings depict a highly unstable environment characterized by CAPEs near 5000 J/kg, DCAPE over 1000 J/kg, around 50 knots of bulk shear. It`s worth noting that there is a healthy cap in place earlier in the day, but recent trends hint at this cap decaying through the day. If we break through the cap, we could see convection quickly become strong to severe. There are some difference between some of the recent CAM guidance. A few solutions keep most of the activity this afternoon to our north and east. On the other hand, the HRRR and NAM3/12km swing a line through our northern counties. All signs point to supercells developing earlier in day near our northern border where we would see more of a large hail risk. A MCS is likely to take shape this afternoon as a weak boundary approaches from the north. As this MCS moves south-southeast, will see more of a damaging wind risk as well as an increased threat for an isolated tornado or two. All activity will likely be offshore by 03Z or so. Drier air will begin to move into the region overnight in the wake of a weak boundary. There is a low to moderate chance of some patchy fog across the Coastal Plains and Victoria Crossroads as low level moisture lingers. Weak upper level ridging will keep us dry on Tuesday. Taking a quick look at temps, we will see temps across the Brush Country hit triple digits this afternoon. Further east, clouds coverage will keep us in the upper 80s. Majority of the region will be under a moderate risk of heat-related impacts today. Drier air tomorrow will promote warmer temps but a reduced risk of heat related impacts. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through next Sunday) Issued at 244 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Key Messages: - Low chance of showers and thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon through the overnight hours. - Low to medium chance of showers and thunderstorms Thursday. - Heat Advisory conditions possible on Thursday and Sunday for the southern inland Coastal Plains and portions of the Brush Country. Quiet weather is in store Tuesday night into Wednesday morning as weak upper-level ridging and quasi zonal flow is in place. Low-level moisture will begin to increase as onshore flow becomes dominant, allowing for PWATs to reach between 1.5 - 2 inches by Wednesday afternoon into Thursday night. By this time, mid-level shortwaves will propagate into the region, acting as a lifting mechanism for this increased moisture. This will result in a low chance (10-20%) for showers and thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and evening, increasing to a low to medium chance (20-50%) through Thursday. The overall coverage and intensity of the precipitation will depend on the interaction between these disturbances and the available moisture. An upper-level trough is forecasted to move into the region on Thursday, which will support the development of a surface low pressure system over North Texas. This system will drag a cold front into Central Texas, which is expected to pass through South Texas by Friday and into the weekend. This frontal passage may trigger additional convection, although the extent of its reach into South Texas remains uncertain at this time. As for the long-term temperature outlook, things will remain on the warm side, with highs in the 90s along the coast and around 100 across the Rio Grande Plains and Brush Country. The combination of heat and humidity will lead to elevated heat index values Thursday and Sunday, particularly across the southern inland Coastal Plains and portions of the Brush Country, where values could rise to 110- && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 622 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024 MVFR conditions are in place across all terminals with the exception of LRD. VFR conditions gradually return by mid day. Chances for showers and thunderstorms increase through the morning as a line of storms moves south into the region. Have VCTS starting between 16-18Z for all site (except LRD) with a TEMPO for -TSRA between 19-23Z as the strongest activity should be passing through then. Large to very large hail and damaging winds are possible with these storms. Convection will be offshore shortly after 00Z. MVFR conditions begin to return by 06Z across the Coastal Plains and Victoria Crossroads. && .MARINE... Issued at 244 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024 A generally moderate southeasterly flow will continue through much of the day. A weak frontal boundary will move offshore this evening, shifting the winds out of the northeast through Tuesday morning. A east-southeasterly flow resumes Tuesday afternoon. Increased moisture and an approaching upper disturbance will lead to a 20-40% chance of showers and storms through this evening. An isolated strong to severe storm moving offshore cannot be ruled out. Drier conditions in store on Tuesday. Weak to moderate onshore flow is expected to continue through much of the week. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible early Wednesday afternoon through Thursday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 94 73 92 73 / 40 20 0 0 Victoria 89 68 93 68 / 60 30 0 0 Laredo 101 74 100 74 / 20 0 0 0 Alice 95 72 95 71 / 40 30 0 0 Rockport 88 74 89 75 / 50 30 0 0 Cotulla 95 72 98 72 / 40 0 0 0 Kingsville 95 73 93 71 / 30 20 10 0 Navy Corpus 90 77 89 77 / 40 20 0 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...TC/95 LONG TERM....KRS AVIATION...TC/95